**Trader consensus centers on 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in 2026 primaries, reflecting an unusually high number of defeats driven by anti-establishment sentiment.** By mid-August, at least seven Democrats had lost, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York (ousted by challengers backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani), Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and two in Texas amid redistricting that forced intra-party matchups. These outcomes stem from a combination of generational challenges targeting older members, progressive or DSA-aligned campaigns emphasizing constituent services and foreign policy differences, and broader frustration with party leadership following the 2024 cycle. Historical norms for non-redistricting years show far fewer Democratic primary losses, but 2026 has already exceeded recent averages with contests still scheduled into September. Additional races in states like California, Massachusetts, and Florida feature viable younger challengers, supporting the market's positioning around the 10-12 range while leaving room for modest variance depending on final results in remaining battleground primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10-12 74.8%
13-15 4.9%
7-9 4.9%
>15 <1%
$32,877 Vol.
$32,877 Vol.
<3
<1%
4-6
<1%
7-9
5%
10-12
75%
13-15
15%
>15
1%
10-12 74.8%
13-15 4.9%
7-9 4.9%
>15 <1%
$32,877 Vol.
$32,877 Vol.
<3
$1,184 Vol.
<1%
4-6
$2,450 Vol.
<1%
7-9
$13,668 Vol.
5%
10-12
$9,531 Vol.
75%
13-15
$3,124 Vol.
15%
>15
$2,919 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus centers on 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in 2026 primaries, reflecting an unusually high number of defeats driven by anti-establishment sentiment.** By mid-August, at least seven Democrats had lost, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York (ousted by challengers backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani), Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and two in Texas amid redistricting that forced intra-party matchups.
These outcomes stem from a combination of generational challenges targeting older members, progressive or DSA-aligned campaigns emphasizing constituent services and foreign policy differences, and broader frustration with party leadership following the 2024 cycle. Historical norms for non-redistricting years show far fewer Democratic primary losses, but 2026 has already exceeded recent averages with contests still scheduled into September.
Additional races in states like California, Massachusetts, and Florida feature viable younger challengers, supporting the market's positioning around the 10-12 range while leaving room for modest variance depending on final results in remaining battleground primaries.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Market Opened: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$32,877Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus centers on 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in 2026 primaries, reflecting an unusually high number of defeats driven by anti-establishment sentiment.** By mid-August, at least seven Democrats had lost, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York (ousted by challengers backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani), Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and two in Texas amid redistricting that forced intra-party matchups.
These outcomes stem from a combination of generational challenges targeting older members, progressive or DSA-aligned campaigns emphasizing constituent services and foreign policy differences, and broader frustration with party leadership following the 2024 cycle. Historical norms for non-redistricting years show far fewer Democratic primary losses, but 2026 has already exceeded recent averages with contests still scheduled into September.
Additional races in states like California, Massachusetts, and Florida feature viable younger challengers, supporting the market's positioning around the 10-12 range while leaving room for modest variance depending on final results in remaining battleground primaries.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$32,877Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus centers on 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in 2026 primaries, reflecting an unusually high number of defeats driven by anti-establishment sentiment.** By mid-August, at least seven Democrats had lost, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York (ousted by challengers backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani), Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and two in Texas amid redistricting that forced intra-party matchups. These outcomes stem from a combination of generational challenges targeting older members, progressive or DSA-aligned campaigns emphasizing constituent services and foreign policy differences, and broader frustration with party leadership following the 2024 cycle. Historical norms for non-redistricting years show far fewer Democratic primary losses, but 2026 has already exceeded recent averages with contests still scheduled into September. Additional races in states like California, Massachusetts, and Florida feature viable younger challengers, supporting the market's positioning around the 10-12 range while leaving room for modest variance depending on final results in remaining battleground primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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