The United States has maintained its voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program, computer modeling, and subcritical experiments to certify warhead safety and reliability without full-yield detonations. In late October 2025, President Trump directed the Department of Defense to begin testing “on an equal basis” with other nations amid reports of Russian and Chinese activities, prompting immediate questions about policy shifts and technical readiness timelines of up to 36 months for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site. New START’s February 2026 expiration and ongoing modernization programs have kept the issue in focus, though no explosive test has occurred and congressional and expert statements continue to emphasize the absence of a technical requirement. Trader assessments reflect uncertainty over whether statements translate into scheduled events within specific resolution windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained its voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program, computer modeling, and subcritical experiments to certify warhead safety and reliability without full-yield detonations. In late October 2025, President Trump directed the Department of Defense to begin testing “on an equal basis” with other nations amid reports of Russian and Chinese activities, prompting immediate questions about policy shifts and technical readiness timelines of up to 36 months for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site. New START’s February 2026 expiration and ongoing modernization programs have kept the issue in focus, though no explosive test has occurred and congressional and expert statements continue to emphasize the absence of a technical requirement. Trader assessments reflect uncertainty over whether statements translate into scheduled events within specific resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$668,738End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained its voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program, computer modeling, and subcritical experiments to certify warhead safety and reliability without full-yield detonations. In late October 2025, President Trump directed the Department of Defense to begin testing “on an equal basis” with other nations amid reports of Russian and Chinese activities, prompting immediate questions about policy shifts and technical readiness timelines of up to 36 months for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site. New START’s February 2026 expiration and ongoing modernization programs have kept the issue in focus, though no explosive test has occurred and congressional and expert statements continue to emphasize the absence of a technical requirement. Trader assessments reflect uncertainty over whether statements translate into scheduled events within specific resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$668,738End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has maintained its voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program, computer modeling, and subcritical experiments to certify warhead safety and reliability without full-yield detonations. In late October 2025, President Trump directed the Department of Defense to begin testing “on an equal basis” with other nations amid reports of Russian and Chinese activities, prompting immediate questions about policy shifts and technical readiness timelines of up to 36 months for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site. New START’s February 2026 expiration and ongoing modernization programs have kept the issue in focus, though no explosive test has occurred and congressional and expert statements continue to emphasize the absence of a technical requirement. Trader assessments reflect uncertainty over whether statements translate into scheduled events within specific resolution windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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