Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GFS models indicate a Warsaw maximum most likely between 29°C and 32°C on August 1, aligning with the closely bunched market probabilities near those thresholds. Thundershowers and persistent cloud cover are expected to limit surface heating and reduce insolation, while variable boundary-layer moisture, light southerly advection, and the timing of any convective development differentiate outcomes within this narrow band. Official resolution depends on measurements from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management network, with historical early-August maxima near 25–26°C providing context for the warmer pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 1?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 1?
31°C 26%
32°C 24%
33°C 21%
30°C 18%
$23,955 Vol.
$23,955 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
28°C or below
2%
29°C
9%
30°C
18%
31°C
26%
32°C
24%
33°C
21%
34°C
6%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
31°C 26%
32°C 24%
33°C 21%
30°C 18%
$23,955 Vol.
$23,955 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
28°C or below
$3,199 Vol.
2%
29°C
$3,880 Vol.
9%
30°C
$2,936 Vol.
18%
31°C
$2,992 Vol.
26%
32°C
$4,266 Vol.
24%
33°C
$2,556 Vol.
21%
34°C
$1,392 Vol.
6%
35°C
$669 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$1,026 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$491 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$547 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GFS models indicate a Warsaw maximum most likely between 29°C and 32°C on August 1, aligning with the closely bunched market probabilities near those thresholds. Thundershowers and persistent cloud cover are expected to limit surface heating and reduce insolation, while variable boundary-layer moisture, light southerly advection, and the timing of any convective development differentiate outcomes within this narrow band. Official resolution depends on measurements from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management network, with historical early-August maxima near 25–26°C providing context for the warmer pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$23,955End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GFS models indicate a Warsaw maximum most likely between 29°C and 32°C on August 1, aligning with the closely bunched market probabilities near those thresholds. Thundershowers and persistent cloud cover are expected to limit surface heating and reduce insolation, while variable boundary-layer moisture, light southerly advection, and the timing of any convective development differentiate outcomes within this narrow band. Official resolution depends on measurements from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management network, with historical early-August maxima near 25–26°C providing context for the warmer pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,955End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GFS models indicate a Warsaw maximum most likely between 29°C and 32°C on August 1, aligning with the closely bunched market probabilities near those thresholds. Thundershowers and persistent cloud cover are expected to limit surface heating and reduce insolation, while variable boundary-layer moisture, light southerly advection, and the timing of any convective development differentiate outcomes within this narrow band. Official resolution depends on measurements from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management network, with historical early-August maxima near 25–26°C providing context for the warmer pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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