Recent forecasts from sources including the Met Office, Yr.no, and AccuWeather indicate a daytime high near 23–25°C for Mexico City on September 6, consistent with the market’s leading outcomes of 24°C, 25°C, and 23°C. The city’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters keeps baseline temperatures moderate even during the September rainy season, while widespread cloud cover and afternoon showers—driven by monsoon moisture—limit solar heating and cap afternoon peaks. Numerical models show consensus on light winds and persistent humidity that further suppress warming, with only modest day-to-day variability expected. Traders appear to have incorporated the latest model runs favoring this narrow range, while assigning low probability to extremes outside 22–26°C given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated official guidance from CONAGUA or the National Meteorological Service could refine these implied probabilities as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
24°C 51%
23°C 26%
25°C 19%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
5%
23°C
26%
24°C
51%
25°C
19%
26°C or higher
4%
24°C 51%
23°C 26%
25°C 19%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
16°C or below
$515 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$171 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$331 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$491 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$240 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$332 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$494 Vol.
5%
23°C
$2,131 Vol.
26%
24°C
$2,795 Vol.
51%
25°C
$1,420 Vol.
19%
26°C or higher
$1,001 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the Met Office, Yr.no, and AccuWeather indicate a daytime high near 23–25°C for Mexico City on September 6, consistent with the market’s leading outcomes of 24°C, 25°C, and 23°C. The city’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters keeps baseline temperatures moderate even during the September rainy season, while widespread cloud cover and afternoon showers—driven by monsoon moisture—limit solar heating and cap afternoon peaks. Numerical models show consensus on light winds and persistent humidity that further suppress warming, with only modest day-to-day variability expected. Traders appear to have incorporated the latest model runs favoring this narrow range, while assigning low probability to extremes outside 22–26°C given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated official guidance from CONAGUA or the National Meteorological Service could refine these implied probabilities as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$9,922End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the Met Office, Yr.no, and AccuWeather indicate a daytime high near 23–25°C for Mexico City on September 6, consistent with the market’s leading outcomes of 24°C, 25°C, and 23°C. The city’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters keeps baseline temperatures moderate even during the September rainy season, while widespread cloud cover and afternoon showers—driven by monsoon moisture—limit solar heating and cap afternoon peaks. Numerical models show consensus on light winds and persistent humidity that further suppress warming, with only modest day-to-day variability expected. Traders appear to have incorporated the latest model runs favoring this narrow range, while assigning low probability to extremes outside 22–26°C given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated official guidance from CONAGUA or the National Meteorological Service could refine these implied probabilities as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,922End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources including the Met Office, Yr.no, and AccuWeather indicate a daytime high near 23–25°C for Mexico City on September 6, consistent with the market’s leading outcomes of 24°C, 25°C, and 23°C. The city’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters keeps baseline temperatures moderate even during the September rainy season, while widespread cloud cover and afternoon showers—driven by monsoon moisture—limit solar heating and cap afternoon peaks. Numerical models show consensus on light winds and persistent humidity that further suppress warming, with only modest day-to-day variability expected. Traders appear to have incorporated the latest model runs favoring this narrow range, while assigning low probability to extremes outside 22–26°C given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated official guidance from CONAGUA or the National Meteorological Service could refine these implied probabilities as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions