National Weather Service guidance highlights a persistent marine layer and onshore flow capping coastal Los Angeles stations like LAX near 77–79°F for August 18, 2026, while downtown areas trend slightly warmer near 84°F. This differential, driven by typical late-summer Pacific cooling and sea-breeze effects, positions the 78–79°F bracket as the market leader at 55.5% implied probability. Recent model runs show limited inland warming potential under stable high pressure, with minimal Santa Ana wind influence or heat advection expected. Historical August baselines near 84°F provide context, but current observational trends and forecast consensus reinforce clustering in the 78–81°F range ahead of final daily observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on August 18?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 18?
78-79°F 56%
76-77°F 21%
80-81°F 19%
82-83°F 4%
NEW
$13,016 Vol.
NEW
$13,016 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
21%
78-79°F
56%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 56%
76-77°F 21%
80-81°F 19%
82-83°F 4%
NEW
$13,016 Vol.
NEW
$13,016 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
71°F or below
$207 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$314 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$867 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$1,374 Vol.
21%
78-79°F
$3,448 Vol.
56%
80-81°F
$4,067 Vol.
19%
82-83°F
$843 Vol.
4%
84-85°F
$537 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$551 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$488 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$320 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service guidance highlights a persistent marine layer and onshore flow capping coastal Los Angeles stations like LAX near 77–79°F for August 18, 2026, while downtown areas trend slightly warmer near 84°F. This differential, driven by typical late-summer Pacific cooling and sea-breeze effects, positions the 78–79°F bracket as the market leader at 55.5% implied probability. Recent model runs show limited inland warming potential under stable high pressure, with minimal Santa Ana wind influence or heat advection expected. Historical August baselines near 84°F provide context, but current observational trends and forecast consensus reinforce clustering in the 78–81°F range ahead of final daily observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 9:57 PM ET
Volume
$13,016End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service guidance highlights a persistent marine layer and onshore flow capping coastal Los Angeles stations like LAX near 77–79°F for August 18, 2026, while downtown areas trend slightly warmer near 84°F. This differential, driven by typical late-summer Pacific cooling and sea-breeze effects, positions the 78–79°F bracket as the market leader at 55.5% implied probability. Recent model runs show limited inland warming potential under stable high pressure, with minimal Santa Ana wind influence or heat advection expected. Historical August baselines near 84°F provide context, but current observational trends and forecast consensus reinforce clustering in the 78–81°F range ahead of final daily observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,016End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service guidance highlights a persistent marine layer and onshore flow capping coastal Los Angeles stations like LAX near 77–79°F for August 18, 2026, while downtown areas trend slightly warmer near 84°F. This differential, driven by typical late-summer Pacific cooling and sea-breeze effects, positions the 78–79°F bracket as the market leader at 55.5% implied probability. Recent model runs show limited inland warming potential under stable high pressure, with minimal Santa Ana wind influence or heat advection expected. Historical August baselines near 84°F provide context, but current observational trends and forecast consensus reinforce clustering in the 78–81°F range ahead of final daily observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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