**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 25°C high in Istanbul on August 17, reflecting real-time meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service.** Persistent northeasterly flow, clear skies, and moderate humidity levels have produced stable daytime heating without significant advection of warmer air masses or urban heat island amplification exceeding seasonal norms. Recent model runs show minimal spread around this value, consistent with historical August patterns where daily maxima in the city typically range 26–29°C but can settle lower under fresher maritime influence. With resolution imminent, traders assign negligible probability to deviations because confirmed station data and nowcasting align closely with 25°C. Only an unforecasted late-day surge from localized convection or measurement revision at official sites could realistically shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 17?
25°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$33,511 Vol.
$33,511 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$33,511 Vol.
$33,511 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
21°C or below
$623 Vol.
No
22°C
$570 Vol.
No
23°C
$548 Vol.
No
24°C
$888 Vol.
No
25°C
$8,333 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$9,299 Vol.
No
27°C
$7,277 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,554 Vol.
No
29°C
$956 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,207 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$2,255 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 25°C high in Istanbul on August 17, reflecting real-time meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service.** Persistent northeasterly flow, clear skies, and moderate humidity levels have produced stable daytime heating without significant advection of warmer air masses or urban heat island amplification exceeding seasonal norms. Recent model runs show minimal spread around this value, consistent with historical August patterns where daily maxima in the city typically range 26–29°C but can settle lower under fresher maritime influence. With resolution imminent, traders assign negligible probability to deviations because confirmed station data and nowcasting align closely with 25°C. Only an unforecasted late-day surge from localized convection or measurement revision at official sites could realistically shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$33,511End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 25°C high in Istanbul on August 17, reflecting real-time meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service.** Persistent northeasterly flow, clear skies, and moderate humidity levels have produced stable daytime heating without significant advection of warmer air masses or urban heat island amplification exceeding seasonal norms. Recent model runs show minimal spread around this value, consistent with historical August patterns where daily maxima in the city typically range 26–29°C but can settle lower under fresher maritime influence. With resolution imminent, traders assign negligible probability to deviations because confirmed station data and nowcasting align closely with 25°C. Only an unforecasted late-day surge from localized convection or measurement revision at official sites could realistically shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,511End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 25°C high in Istanbul on August 17, reflecting real-time meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service.** Persistent northeasterly flow, clear skies, and moderate humidity levels have produced stable daytime heating without significant advection of warmer air masses or urban heat island amplification exceeding seasonal norms. Recent model runs show minimal spread around this value, consistent with historical August patterns where daily maxima in the city typically range 26–29°C but can settle lower under fresher maritime influence. With resolution imminent, traders assign negligible probability to deviations because confirmed station data and nowcasting align closely with 25°C. Only an unforecasted late-day surge from localized convection or measurement revision at official sites could realistically shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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