Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance points to a 27–31°C range for September 21, with mainly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms limiting peak heating. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31°C (33.5%) and 32°C (28.5%), reflecting model consensus on modest daytime insolation beneath building cloud and the moderating effect of higher humidity and light northeast winds. Recent anticyclone influence has kept recent days drier and warmer, but its retreat allows greater convective activity that caps maximum temperatures. Updated HKO briefings and ensemble runs will clarify whether isolated clearing permits a 32°C reading or persistent showers hold readings near 30°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 21?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 21?
31°C 39%
30°C 32%
32°C 28%
29°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
3%
28°C
10%
29°C
16%
30°C
24%
31°C
34%
32°C
28%
33°C
16%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
11%
31°C 39%
30°C 32%
32°C 28%
29°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
25°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$230 Vol.
3%
28°C
$0 Vol.
10%
29°C
$0 Vol.
16%
30°C
$70 Vol.
24%
31°C
$76 Vol.
34%
32°C
$57 Vol.
28%
33°C
$0 Vol.
16%
34°C
$0 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance points to a 27–31°C range for September 21, with mainly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms limiting peak heating. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31°C (33.5%) and 32°C (28.5%), reflecting model consensus on modest daytime insolation beneath building cloud and the moderating effect of higher humidity and light northeast winds. Recent anticyclone influence has kept recent days drier and warmer, but its retreat allows greater convective activity that caps maximum temperatures. Updated HKO briefings and ensemble runs will clarify whether isolated clearing permits a 32°C reading or persistent showers hold readings near 30°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$438End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance points to a 27–31°C range for September 21, with mainly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms limiting peak heating. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31°C (33.5%) and 32°C (28.5%), reflecting model consensus on modest daytime insolation beneath building cloud and the moderating effect of higher humidity and light northeast winds. Recent anticyclone influence has kept recent days drier and warmer, but its retreat allows greater convective activity that caps maximum temperatures. Updated HKO briefings and ensemble runs will clarify whether isolated clearing permits a 32°C reading or persistent showers hold readings near 30°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$438End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance points to a 27–31°C range for September 21, with mainly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms limiting peak heating. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31°C (33.5%) and 32°C (28.5%), reflecting model consensus on modest daytime insolation beneath building cloud and the moderating effect of higher humidity and light northeast winds. Recent anticyclone influence has kept recent days drier and warmer, but its retreat allows greater convective activity that caps maximum temperatures. Updated HKO briefings and ensemble runs will clarify whether isolated clearing permits a 32°C reading or persistent showers hold readings near 30°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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