High pressure from a subtropical anticyclone over southern China is sustaining clear to partly sunny skies and strong daytime heating across Hong Kong, driving market-implied odds toward a 31–33 °C peak on 20 September. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance projects a 27–32 °C range with low rain probability early in the day, though localized afternoon showers could limit insolation and cap the maximum. Light easterly winds and moderate humidity (55–90 %) will modulate boundary-layer mixing and evaporative cooling, while model consensus on shower timing and coverage introduces the narrow spread between the 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes. Updated short-range guidance and real-time observations tomorrow morning will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 20?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 20?
32°C 39%
33°C 30%
31°C 21%
30°C 3%
NEW
$16,429 Vol.
NEW
$16,429 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
3%
31°C
21%
32°C
39%
33°C
30%
34°C
3%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 39%
33°C 30%
31°C 21%
30°C 3%
NEW
$16,429 Vol.
NEW
$16,429 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
26°C or below
$261 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$513 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,409 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$387 Vol.
1%
30°C
$1,843 Vol.
3%
31°C
$2,476 Vol.
21%
32°C
$2,533 Vol.
39%
33°C
$5,251 Vol.
30%
34°C
$638 Vol.
3%
35°C
$402 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$717 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.High pressure from a subtropical anticyclone over southern China is sustaining clear to partly sunny skies and strong daytime heating across Hong Kong, driving market-implied odds toward a 31–33 °C peak on 20 September. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance projects a 27–32 °C range with low rain probability early in the day, though localized afternoon showers could limit insolation and cap the maximum. Light easterly winds and moderate humidity (55–90 %) will modulate boundary-layer mixing and evaporative cooling, while model consensus on shower timing and coverage introduces the narrow spread between the 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes. Updated short-range guidance and real-time observations tomorrow morning will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$16,429End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.High pressure from a subtropical anticyclone over southern China is sustaining clear to partly sunny skies and strong daytime heating across Hong Kong, driving market-implied odds toward a 31–33 °C peak on 20 September. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance projects a 27–32 °C range with low rain probability early in the day, though localized afternoon showers could limit insolation and cap the maximum. Light easterly winds and moderate humidity (55–90 %) will modulate boundary-layer mixing and evaporative cooling, while model consensus on shower timing and coverage introduces the narrow spread between the 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes. Updated short-range guidance and real-time observations tomorrow morning will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$16,429End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...High pressure from a subtropical anticyclone over southern China is sustaining clear to partly sunny skies and strong daytime heating across Hong Kong, driving market-implied odds toward a 31–33 °C peak on 20 September. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance projects a 27–32 °C range with low rain probability early in the day, though localized afternoon showers could limit insolation and cap the maximum. Light easterly winds and moderate humidity (55–90 %) will modulate boundary-layer mixing and evaporative cooling, while model consensus on shower timing and coverage introduces the narrow spread between the 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes. Updated short-range guidance and real-time observations tomorrow morning will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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