Stalled legislative efforts represent the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus at a 97.4% implied probability that the Federal Reserve will not be abolished before 2027. The Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act (H.R. 1846/S.869), introduced in 2025, remains stalled in committee with no floor votes or advancement as of mid-2026, while the remaining bicameral process—including Senate passage, House reconciliation, and presidential signature—faces steep procedural and timing barriers before year-end 2026. Ongoing Fed activities, such as proposed capital rule modernizations and stress-test scenarios, underscore institutional continuity. Tail-risk scenarios include an unforeseen congressional supermajority or executive action bypassing norms, though both remain remote given entrenched independence precedents and divided political incentives.