Trader consensus has coalesced around the 40–64 bracket at 72% implied probability because historical three-day settlements, particularly those spanning weekends, routinely land in this moderate range when Elon Musk maintains his baseline cadence without major political or company flashpoints. Recent eight-day windows averaged 30–42 posts daily during active periods, yet lighter stretches like the Aug. 22–24 market resolved inside 40–64 amid subdued engagement. The current Aug. 29–31 window includes two weekend days plus a Monday with no confirmed high-visibility catalysts—such as regulatory announcements or viral threads—expected to drive reply volume or extended exchanges. This positioning aligns with weekend posting averages running notably below weekdays, keeping elevated brackets (90+) as low-probability tails while leaving room for modest Monday activity to anchor the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 72%
65-89 14%
<40 12%
90-114 2.0%
$203,729 Vol.
$203,729 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<40
12%
40-64
72%
65-89
14%
90-114
2%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 72%
65-89 14%
<40 12%
90-114 2.0%
$203,729 Vol.
$203,729 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<40
$43,672 Vol.
12%
40-64
$28,218 Vol.
72%
65-89
$27,092 Vol.
14%
90-114
$34,298 Vol.
2%
115-139
$39,924 Vol.
1%
140-164
$11,756 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$11,912 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$4,938 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,811 Vol.
<1%
240+
$1,274 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus has coalesced around the 40–64 bracket at 72% implied probability because historical three-day settlements, particularly those spanning weekends, routinely land in this moderate range when Elon Musk maintains his baseline cadence without major political or company flashpoints. Recent eight-day windows averaged 30–42 posts daily during active periods, yet lighter stretches like the Aug. 22–24 market resolved inside 40–64 amid subdued engagement. The current Aug. 29–31 window includes two weekend days plus a Monday with no confirmed high-visibility catalysts—such as regulatory announcements or viral threads—expected to drive reply volume or extended exchanges. This positioning aligns with weekend posting averages running notably below weekdays, keeping elevated brackets (90+) as low-probability tails while leaving room for modest Monday activity to anchor the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$203,729End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus has coalesced around the 40–64 bracket at 72% implied probability because historical three-day settlements, particularly those spanning weekends, routinely land in this moderate range when Elon Musk maintains his baseline cadence without major political or company flashpoints. Recent eight-day windows averaged 30–42 posts daily during active periods, yet lighter stretches like the Aug. 22–24 market resolved inside 40–64 amid subdued engagement. The current Aug. 29–31 window includes two weekend days plus a Monday with no confirmed high-visibility catalysts—such as regulatory announcements or viral threads—expected to drive reply volume or extended exchanges. This positioning aligns with weekend posting averages running notably below weekdays, keeping elevated brackets (90+) as low-probability tails while leaving room for modest Monday activity to anchor the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$203,729End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus has coalesced around the 40–64 bracket at 72% implied probability because historical three-day settlements, particularly those spanning weekends, routinely land in this moderate range when Elon Musk maintains his baseline cadence without major political or company flashpoints. Recent eight-day windows averaged 30–42 posts daily during active periods, yet lighter stretches like the Aug. 22–24 market resolved inside 40–64 amid subdued engagement. The current Aug. 29–31 window includes two weekend days plus a Monday with no confirmed high-visibility catalysts—such as regulatory announcements or viral threads—expected to drive reply volume or extended exchanges. This positioning aligns with weekend posting averages running notably below weekdays, keeping elevated brackets (90+) as low-probability tails while leaving room for modest Monday activity to anchor the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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