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Elections·Midterms

CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Midterms

CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Luke Bronin 56%

John Larson 39%

Ruth Fortune 3.0%

Jillian Gilchrest 2.3%

Polymarket

$10,669 Vol.

Luke Bronin 56%

John Larson 39%

Ruth Fortune 3.0%

Jillian Gilchrest 2.3%

Polymarket

$10,669 Vol.

Luke Bronin

$4,274 Vol.

56%

John Larson

$1,500 Vol.

39%

Ruth Fortune

$985 Vol.

3%

Jillian Gilchrest

$2,239 Vol.

2%

Mark Stewart Greenstein

$1,671 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Luke Bronin holds the lead in the CT-01 Democratic primary market following his narrow victory over 14-term incumbent John Larson at the May 2026 nominating convention, where Bronin secured the party endorsement on the second ballot by roughly 51% to 49%. This outcome, described as unprecedented for a sitting Connecticut congressman, shifted trader sentiment by demonstrating delegate support for the former Hartford mayor amid discussions of generational turnover in the safe Democratic district. Subsequent polling has shown Bronin ahead, reinforcing his position ahead of the August 11 primary. Larson, seeking to reframe the contest around policy differences, remains competitive but trails in current pricing. Minor candidates including Jillian Gilchrest, Ruth Fortune, and Mark Stewart Greenstein receive limited support, consistent with their lower visibility and delegate performance at the convention.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,669
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Luke Bronin holds the lead in the CT-01 Democratic primary market following his narrow victory over 14-term incumbent John Larson at the May 2026 nominating convention, where Bronin secured the party endorsement on the second ballot by roughly 51% to 49%. This outcome, described as unprecedented for a sitting Connecticut congressman, shifted trader sentiment by demonstrating delegate support for the former Hartford mayor amid discussions of generational turnover in the safe Democratic district. Subsequent polling has shown Bronin ahead, reinforcing his position ahead of the August 11 primary. Larson, seeking to reframe the contest around policy differences, remains competitive but trails in current pricing. Minor candidates including Jillian Gilchrest, Ruth Fortune, and Mark Stewart Greenstein receive limited support, consistent with their lower visibility and delegate performance at the convention.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,669
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Luke Bronin" at 56%, followed by "John Larson" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $10.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Luke Bronin" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Larson" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.