Nevada voters approved the abortion rights constitutional amendment (Question 6) by a wide margin in 2024, and state rules require only a second affirmative vote in the November 2026 general election for it to take effect. Current abortion access remains legal up to 24 weeks under longstanding statute and referendum precedent, with limited organized opposition or polling shifts evident since the first passage. Traders assign 97.7% probability to passage because the measure aligns with established voter preferences in the state and faces no apparent procedural or legal barriers ahead of the ballot. Plausible factors that could still alter the outcome include unusually low turnout among supportive voters, late shifts in national political dynamics affecting down-ballot participation, or unforeseen campaign developments in the final months before the election.