Several 2026 Senate contests are rated as toss-ups or leans by forecasters due to the underlying partisan leans of states that split in the 2024 presidential election, combined with a national generic ballot showing a modest Democratic edge. Key races in Georgia, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, and North Carolina feature Democratic incumbents or Republican-held seats in swing or slightly red territory, where candidate quality, fundraising, and primary outcomes have kept margins tight. Special elections in Ohio and Florida add variables tied to prior resignations. Recent July rating shifts reflect updated polling and special-election results that have increased the number of seats viewed as competitive within a narrow range. Primaries through August and fall debates remain scheduled events that could further adjust positioning ahead of the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,275 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ohio (Special)
76%
Michigan
75%
Iowa
74%
Alaska
71%
Texas
69%
Maine
66%
New Hampshire
47%
Nebraska
45%
Georgia
34%
Florida (Special)
29%
North Carolina
28%
Minnesota
25%
New Mexico
11%
Montana
8%
Virginia
5%
Colorado
3%
$21,275 Vol.
Ohio (Special)
$590 Vol.
76%
Michigan
$519 Vol.
75%
Iowa
$766 Vol.
74%
Alaska
$354 Vol.
71%
Texas
$1,962 Vol.
69%
Maine
$228 Vol.
66%
New Hampshire
$1,001 Vol.
47%
Nebraska
$1,867 Vol.
45%
Georgia
$163 Vol.
34%
Florida (Special)
$977 Vol.
29%
North Carolina
$1,712 Vol.
28%
Minnesota
$5,588 Vol.
25%
New Mexico
$1,813 Vol.
11%
Montana
$1,277 Vol.
8%
Virginia
$897 Vol.
5%
Colorado
$1,562 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests are rated as toss-ups or leans by forecasters due to the underlying partisan leans of states that split in the 2024 presidential election, combined with a national generic ballot showing a modest Democratic edge. Key races in Georgia, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, and North Carolina feature Democratic incumbents or Republican-held seats in swing or slightly red territory, where candidate quality, fundraising, and primary outcomes have kept margins tight. Special elections in Ohio and Florida add variables tied to prior resignations. Recent July rating shifts reflect updated polling and special-election results that have increased the number of seats viewed as competitive within a narrow range. Primaries through August and fall debates remain scheduled events that could further adjust positioning ahead of the November general election.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$21,275End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests are rated as toss-ups or leans by forecasters due to the underlying partisan leans of states that split in the 2024 presidential election, combined with a national generic ballot showing a modest Democratic edge. Key races in Georgia, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, and North Carolina feature Democratic incumbents or Republican-held seats in swing or slightly red territory, where candidate quality, fundraising, and primary outcomes have kept margins tight. Special elections in Ohio and Florida add variables tied to prior resignations. Recent July rating shifts reflect updated polling and special-election results that have increased the number of seats viewed as competitive within a narrow range. Primaries through August and fall debates remain scheduled events that could further adjust positioning ahead of the November general election.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,275End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Several 2026 Senate contests are rated as toss-ups or leans by forecasters due to the underlying partisan leans of states that split in the 2024 presidential election, combined with a national generic ballot showing a modest Democratic edge. Key races in Georgia, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, and North Carolina feature Democratic incumbents or Republican-held seats in swing or slightly red territory, where candidate quality, fundraising, and primary outcomes have kept margins tight. Special elections in Ohio and Florida add variables tied to prior resignations. Recent July rating shifts reflect updated polling and special-election results that have increased the number of seats viewed as competitive within a narrow range. Primaries through August and fall debates remain scheduled events that could further adjust positioning ahead of the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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