California's 44th congressional district features a pronounced Democratic partisan advantage and strong voter registration edge that anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Incumbent Nanette Barragán secured the top spot in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with over 72 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Genevieve Angel and confirming the general-election matchup for November 3. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's recent history of large margins for the incumbent. These structural factors, combined with limited Republican infrastructure in the area, explain the wide implied probability reflected in current pricing. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, sudden health event, or dramatic national political shift capable of altering turnout patterns before Election Day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$23,145 거래량
$23,145 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
6%
$23,145 거래량
$23,145 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$14,909 거래량
94%
공화당
$8,236 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 44th congressional district features a pronounced Democratic partisan advantage and strong voter registration edge that anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Incumbent Nanette Barragán secured the top spot in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with over 72 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Genevieve Angel and confirming the general-election matchup for November 3. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's recent history of large margins for the incumbent. These structural factors, combined with limited Republican infrastructure in the area, explain the wide implied probability reflected in current pricing. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, sudden health event, or dramatic national political shift capable of altering turnout patterns before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
거래량
$23,145종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 44th congressional district features a pronounced Democratic partisan advantage and strong voter registration edge that anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Incumbent Nanette Barragán secured the top spot in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with over 72 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Genevieve Angel and confirming the general-election matchup for November 3. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's recent history of large margins for the incumbent. These structural factors, combined with limited Republican infrastructure in the area, explain the wide implied probability reflected in current pricing. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, sudden health event, or dramatic national political shift capable of altering turnout patterns before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$23,145종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 44th congressional district features a pronounced Democratic partisan advantage and strong voter registration edge that anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Incumbent Nanette Barragán secured the top spot in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with over 72 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Genevieve Angel and confirming the general-election matchup for November 3. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's recent history of large margins for the incumbent. These structural factors, combined with limited Republican infrastructure in the area, explain the wide implied probability reflected in current pricing. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, sudden health event, or dramatic national political shift capable of altering turnout patterns before Election Day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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