Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo secured the CA-16 nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with over 75% of the vote, far outpacing the leading Republican. The Santa Clara and San Mateo County-based district carries a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its Solid D rating and historical voting patterns that delivered the seat to Democrats in the prior cycle. Traders assign the party a 94.5% implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election. Late developments such as a major national political shift, candidate health issue, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the margin, though the district's composition and primary results indicate substantial structural advantages for the Democratic nominee.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-16 House Election Winner
CA-16 House Election Winner
$92,580 Vol.
$92,580 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$92,580 Vol.
$92,580 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$51,719 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$40,862 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo secured the CA-16 nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with over 75% of the vote, far outpacing the leading Republican. The Santa Clara and San Mateo County-based district carries a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its Solid D rating and historical voting patterns that delivered the seat to Democrats in the prior cycle. Traders assign the party a 94.5% implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election. Late developments such as a major national political shift, candidate health issue, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the margin, though the district's composition and primary results indicate substantial structural advantages for the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$92,580End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo secured the CA-16 nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with over 75% of the vote, far outpacing the leading Republican. The Santa Clara and San Mateo County-based district carries a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its Solid D rating and historical voting patterns that delivered the seat to Democrats in the prior cycle. Traders assign the party a 94.5% implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election. Late developments such as a major national political shift, candidate health issue, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the margin, though the district's composition and primary results indicate substantial structural advantages for the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$92,580End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo secured the CA-16 nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with over 75% of the vote, far outpacing the leading Republican. The Santa Clara and San Mateo County-based district carries a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its Solid D rating and historical voting patterns that delivered the seat to Democrats in the prior cycle. Traders assign the party a 94.5% implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election. Late developments such as a major national political shift, candidate health issue, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the margin, though the district's composition and primary results indicate substantial structural advantages for the Democratic nominee.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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