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Politics·Senate Races

Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

icon for Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?
Politics·Senate Races

Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

84% chance
Polymarket
NEW
84% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of all elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A Senate candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by either the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/), or by the official state election authorities of the states listed above. Republicans hold competitive positions in several 2026 Senate and gubernatorial contests across states that Biden carried in 2020 but Trump won in 2024, including Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin. Democrats defend an open Senate seat in Michigan and a vulnerable incumbent in Georgia, while multiple governor races feature Republican incumbents or strong challengers in battleground terrain. Recent primary outcomes and early polling averages show narrow margins in key districts, with GOP candidates benefiting from the post-2024 electoral map and voter trends in these areas. Trader consensus at 60.5% for a Republican win in at least one such race reflects this mix of structural opportunities and the inherent volatility of midterm cycles still months from resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of all elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A Senate candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by either the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/), or by the official state election authorities of the states listed above.
Volume
$3,298
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 11:20 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of all elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A Senate candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by either the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/), or by the official state election authorities of the states listed above.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of all elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A Senate candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by either the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/), or by the official state election authorities of the states listed above. Republicans hold competitive positions in several 2026 Senate and gubernatorial contests across states that Biden carried in 2020 but Trump won in 2024, including Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin. Democrats defend an open Senate seat in Michigan and a vulnerable incumbent in Georgia, while multiple governor races feature Republican incumbents or strong challengers in battleground terrain. Recent primary outcomes and early polling averages show narrow margins in key districts, with GOP candidates benefiting from the post-2024 electoral map and voter trends in these areas. Trader consensus at 60.5% for a Republican win in at least one such race reflects this mix of structural opportunities and the inherent volatility of midterm cycles still months from resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of all elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A Senate candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by either the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/), or by the official state election authorities of the states listed above.
Volume
$3,298
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 11:20 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of all elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A Senate candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by either the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/), or by the official state election authorities of the states listed above.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 84% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 84¢, the market collectively assigns a 84% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?" is 84% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 84% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.