Skip to main content
icon for Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Mathieu Rivest 42%

Nancy St-Pierre 27%

Frédéric Poulin 27%

Valérie Hamel 24%

Polymarket
NEW

Mathieu Rivest 42%

Nancy St-Pierre 27%

Frédéric Poulin 27%

Valérie Hamel 24%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Mathieu Rivest

Mathieu Rivest

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Nancy St-Pierre

Nancy St-Pierre

$0 Vol.

27%

icon for Frédéric Poulin

Frédéric Poulin

$0 Vol.

27%

icon for Valérie Hamel

Valérie Hamel

$0 Vol.

24%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The tight trader consensus around Mathieu Rivest (CAQ incumbent at 42.5%), Valérie Hamel (PQ at 26%), Frédéric Poulin (PCQ at 25.5%), and Nancy St-Pierre (PLQ at 24%) reflects a fragmented riding where provincial polling trends show CAQ, PQ, and PCQ support clustered within a few points. Rivest won comfortably in 2022, but recent models project a much narrower margin amid broader erosion of CAQ strength and gains for PQ and PCQ in the Bas-Saint-Laurent region. The October 5 election date and ongoing campaign, with candidates confirmed since early August, keep probabilities closely matched as no single party has established a decisive local advantage. Further separation could emerge from late polling shifts, party leader visits, or voter reaction to regional issues such as health-care access and economic development.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$0
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:46 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The tight trader consensus around Mathieu Rivest (CAQ incumbent at 42.5%), Valérie Hamel (PQ at 26%), Frédéric Poulin (PCQ at 25.5%), and Nancy St-Pierre (PLQ at 24%) reflects a fragmented riding where provincial polling trends show CAQ, PQ, and PCQ support clustered within a few points. Rivest won comfortably in 2022, but recent models project a much narrower margin amid broader erosion of CAQ strength and gains for PQ and PCQ in the Bas-Saint-Laurent region. The October 5 election date and ongoing campaign, with candidates confirmed since early August, keep probabilities closely matched as no single party has established a decisive local advantage. Further separation could emerge from late polling shifts, party leader visits, or voter reaction to regional issues such as health-care access and economic development.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$0
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:46 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).

Related

icon for Will Geneviève Hébert win the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election?

Will Geneviève Hébert win the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election?

44%
icon for Will Jean-François Cloutier win the next Montarville Quebec National Assembly election?

Will Jean-François Cloutier win the next Montarville Quebec National Assembly election?

44%
icon for Will Maude Brossard-Sabourin win the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election?

Will Maude Brossard-Sabourin win the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election?

46%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mathieu Rivest" at 42%, followed by "Nancy St-Pierre" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Mathieu Rivest" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nancy St-Pierre" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.