Recent softer-than-expected Brazilian inflation data, with the August IPCA declining 0.32% month-over-month to an annual rate of 4.22%, has bolstered trader expectations for continued gradual monetary easing by the Central Bank of Brazil. This cooling, driven by lower electricity, food, and transport costs, has reinforced the market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Selic cut in November at 60.5%, as it aligns with the BCB’s target band and supports further disinflation amid signs of moderating economic activity and high real rates. The 35.5% probability of no change reflects ongoing caution from the Copom over still-elevated inflation expectations above the 3% target, fiscal stimulus risks, and a preference for measured 25-basis-point adjustments rather than acceleration. Larger moves remain low-probability outliers given the bank’s data-dependent, gradual policy stance, with upcoming September and November meetings serving as key catalysts for any shifts in the implied rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps decrease 61%
No Change 36%
50+ bps decrease 5.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
$15,522 Vol.
$15,522 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase
<1%
No Change
36%
25 bps decrease
61%
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease 61%
No Change 36%
50+ bps decrease 5.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
$15,522 Vol.
$15,522 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
50+ bps increase
$1,313 Vol.
<1%
25 bps increase
$1,771 Vol.
<1%
No Change
$7,597 Vol.
36%
25 bps decrease
$2,854 Vol.
61%
50+ bps decrease
$1,987 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent softer-than-expected Brazilian inflation data, with the August IPCA declining 0.32% month-over-month to an annual rate of 4.22%, has bolstered trader expectations for continued gradual monetary easing by the Central Bank of Brazil. This cooling, driven by lower electricity, food, and transport costs, has reinforced the market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Selic cut in November at 60.5%, as it aligns with the BCB’s target band and supports further disinflation amid signs of moderating economic activity and high real rates. The 35.5% probability of no change reflects ongoing caution from the Copom over still-elevated inflation expectations above the 3% target, fiscal stimulus risks, and a preference for measured 25-basis-point adjustments rather than acceleration. Larger moves remain low-probability outliers given the bank’s data-dependent, gradual policy stance, with upcoming September and November meetings serving as key catalysts for any shifts in the implied rate path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Volume
$15,522End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent softer-than-expected Brazilian inflation data, with the August IPCA declining 0.32% month-over-month to an annual rate of 4.22%, has bolstered trader expectations for continued gradual monetary easing by the Central Bank of Brazil. This cooling, driven by lower electricity, food, and transport costs, has reinforced the market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Selic cut in November at 60.5%, as it aligns with the BCB’s target band and supports further disinflation amid signs of moderating economic activity and high real rates. The 35.5% probability of no change reflects ongoing caution from the Copom over still-elevated inflation expectations above the 3% target, fiscal stimulus risks, and a preference for measured 25-basis-point adjustments rather than acceleration. Larger moves remain low-probability outliers given the bank’s data-dependent, gradual policy stance, with upcoming September and November meetings serving as key catalysts for any shifts in the implied rate path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$15,522End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent softer-than-expected Brazilian inflation data, with the August IPCA declining 0.32% month-over-month to an annual rate of 4.22%, has bolstered trader expectations for continued gradual monetary easing by the Central Bank of Brazil. This cooling, driven by lower electricity, food, and transport costs, has reinforced the market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Selic cut in November at 60.5%, as it aligns with the BCB’s target band and supports further disinflation amid signs of moderating economic activity and high real rates. The 35.5% probability of no change reflects ongoing caution from the Copom over still-elevated inflation expectations above the 3% target, fiscal stimulus risks, and a preference for measured 25-basis-point adjustments rather than acceleration. Larger moves remain low-probability outliers given the bank’s data-dependent, gradual policy stance, with upcoming September and November meetings serving as key catalysts for any shifts in the implied rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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