Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, following a 1.1% Q1 print, has reinforced expectations for continued moderation into Q3 amid restrictive monetary policy with the Selic rate near 14%. High borrowing costs have weighed on household consumption and domestic demand, while a negative external sector contribution and fading fiscal stimulus add downside pressure, as reflected in revised full-year 2026 forecasts clustered around 1.8-2.0%. The closely matched Polymarket odds, with the highest probabilities on outcomes between -0.3% and 0.5%, underscore trader uncertainty over whether the slowdown will tip into mild contraction or stabilize near flat. Key swing factors include incoming monthly activity indicators, inflation trajectory, and any further central bank communications before the Q3 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated-0.3% to -0.1% 30%
0.0% to 0.2% 24%
0.6% to 0.8% 11%
0.3% to 0.5% 10%
NEW
NEW
Dec 1, 2026
<-0.3%
9%
-0.3% to -0.1%
30%
0.0% to 0.2%
25%
0.3% to 0.5%
16%
0.6% to 0.8%
11%
0.9% to 1.1%
24%
≥1.2%
26%
-0.3% to -0.1% 30%
0.0% to 0.2% 24%
0.6% to 0.8% 11%
0.3% to 0.5% 10%
NEW
NEW
Dec 1, 2026
<-0.3%
$63 Vol.
9%
-0.3% to -0.1%
$583 Vol.
30%
0.0% to 0.2%
$1,908 Vol.
25%
0.3% to 0.5%
$63 Vol.
16%
0.6% to 0.8%
$63 Vol.
11%
0.9% to 1.1%
$53 Vol.
24%
≥1.2%
$53 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, following a 1.1% Q1 print, has reinforced expectations for continued moderation into Q3 amid restrictive monetary policy with the Selic rate near 14%. High borrowing costs have weighed on household consumption and domestic demand, while a negative external sector contribution and fading fiscal stimulus add downside pressure, as reflected in revised full-year 2026 forecasts clustered around 1.8-2.0%. The closely matched Polymarket odds, with the highest probabilities on outcomes between -0.3% and 0.5%, underscore trader uncertainty over whether the slowdown will tip into mild contraction or stabilize near flat. Key swing factors include incoming monthly activity indicators, inflation trajectory, and any further central bank communications before the Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,786End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, following a 1.1% Q1 print, has reinforced expectations for continued moderation into Q3 amid restrictive monetary policy with the Selic rate near 14%. High borrowing costs have weighed on household consumption and domestic demand, while a negative external sector contribution and fading fiscal stimulus add downside pressure, as reflected in revised full-year 2026 forecasts clustered around 1.8-2.0%. The closely matched Polymarket odds, with the highest probabilities on outcomes between -0.3% and 0.5%, underscore trader uncertainty over whether the slowdown will tip into mild contraction or stabilize near flat. Key swing factors include incoming monthly activity indicators, inflation trajectory, and any further central bank communications before the Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$2,786End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, following a 1.1% Q1 print, has reinforced expectations for continued moderation into Q3 amid restrictive monetary policy with the Selic rate near 14%. High borrowing costs have weighed on household consumption and domestic demand, while a negative external sector contribution and fading fiscal stimulus add downside pressure, as reflected in revised full-year 2026 forecasts clustered around 1.8-2.0%. The closely matched Polymarket odds, with the highest probabilities on outcomes between -0.3% and 0.5%, underscore trader uncertainty over whether the slowdown will tip into mild contraction or stabilize near flat. Key swing factors include incoming monthly activity indicators, inflation trajectory, and any further central bank communications before the Q3 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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