Japan's Q2 2026 GDP preliminary release, showing 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth that annualizes to roughly 1.2%, has anchored trader consensus on the 0.8%–1.6% band at 99.6% implied probability. This outcome aligns with forecasts anticipating moderation after Q1's stronger 2.1% annualized expansion, reflecting cooling domestic demand and external headwinds amid stable monetary policy from the Bank of Japan. The first preliminary estimate, released August 17, reinforced market-implied odds by falling squarely within the targeted range, consistent with economist surveys projecting around 1.67% annualized. A material upward revision in the September second preliminary or unexpectedly robust final consumption and capital expenditure data could still shift probabilities, though such outcomes appear low-probability given current indicators.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0.8%–1.6% 99.6%
<-2.4% <1%
-2.4%– -1.6% <1%
-1.6%– -0.8% <1%
$101,273 Vol.
$101,273 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<-2.4%
No
-2.4%– -1.6%
No
-1.6%– -0.8%
No
-0.8%–0.0%
No
0.0%–0.8%
No
0.8%–1.6%
Yes
1.6%–2.4%
No
2.4%–3.2%
No
3.2%–4.0%
No
4.0%+
No
0.8%–1.6% 99.6%
<-2.4% <1%
-2.4%– -1.6% <1%
-1.6%– -0.8% <1%
$101,273 Vol.
$101,273 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<-2.4%
$2,189 Vol.
No
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,033 Vol.
No
-1.6%– -0.8%
$4,069 Vol.
No
-0.8%–0.0%
$13,318 Vol.
No
0.0%–0.8%
$42,137 Vol.
No
0.8%–1.6%
$22,324 Vol.
Yes
1.6%–2.4%
$4,374 Vol.
No
2.4%–3.2%
$5,170 Vol.
No
3.2%–4.0%
$2,182 Vol.
No
4.0%+
$2,477 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan's Q2 2026 GDP preliminary release, showing 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth that annualizes to roughly 1.2%, has anchored trader consensus on the 0.8%–1.6% band at 99.6% implied probability. This outcome aligns with forecasts anticipating moderation after Q1's stronger 2.1% annualized expansion, reflecting cooling domestic demand and external headwinds amid stable monetary policy from the Bank of Japan. The first preliminary estimate, released August 17, reinforced market-implied odds by falling squarely within the targeted range, consistent with economist surveys projecting around 1.67% annualized. A material upward revision in the September second preliminary or unexpectedly robust final consumption and capital expenditure data could still shift probabilities, though such outcomes appear low-probability given current indicators.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volumen
$101,273Fecha de finalización
17 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan's Q2 2026 GDP preliminary release, showing 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth that annualizes to roughly 1.2%, has anchored trader consensus on the 0.8%–1.6% band at 99.6% implied probability. This outcome aligns with forecasts anticipating moderation after Q1's stronger 2.1% annualized expansion, reflecting cooling domestic demand and external headwinds amid stable monetary policy from the Bank of Japan. The first preliminary estimate, released August 17, reinforced market-implied odds by falling squarely within the targeted range, consistent with economist surveys projecting around 1.67% annualized. A material upward revision in the September second preliminary or unexpectedly robust final consumption and capital expenditure data could still shift probabilities, though such outcomes appear low-probability given current indicators.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volumen
$101,273Fecha de finalización
17 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Japan's Q2 2026 GDP preliminary release, showing 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth that annualizes to roughly 1.2%, has anchored trader consensus on the 0.8%–1.6% band at 99.6% implied probability. This outcome aligns with forecasts anticipating moderation after Q1's stronger 2.1% annualized expansion, reflecting cooling domestic demand and external headwinds amid stable monetary policy from the Bank of Japan. The first preliminary estimate, released August 17, reinforced market-implied odds by falling squarely within the targeted range, consistent with economist surveys projecting around 1.67% annualized. A material upward revision in the September second preliminary or unexpectedly robust final consumption and capital expenditure data could still shift probabilities, though such outcomes appear low-probability given current indicators.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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