China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5-5% and consensus forecasts from institutions such as the ADB, World Bank, OECD, and UBS—clustering around 4.4-4.7%—underpin the overwhelming market weighting on the 4.0-5.0% band. First-half results showed 4.7% expansion overall, with Q1 at 5% giving way to a 4.3% Q2 pace amid softening domestic demand and a continued property adjustment. Exports and high-tech manufacturing investment have provided resilience, while targeted fiscal and monetary measures, including incremental stimulus and policy implementation focus, support the range without expectations of a sharp rebound. Geopolitical factors such as energy price pressures from Middle East developments have exerted only modest effects so far, keeping lower or higher outcomes at minimal implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4.0–5.0% 89%
5,0–6,0% 10.7%
3,0–4,0 % 1.1%
8,0–9,0% 1.0%
$877,689 Vol.
$877,689 Vol.
31 ene 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
1%
4.0–5.0%
89%
5,0–6,0%
11%
6,0-7,0%
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
<1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 89%
5,0–6,0% 10.7%
3,0–4,0 % 1.1%
8,0–9,0% 1.0%
$877,689 Vol.
$877,689 Vol.
31 ene 2026
<1,0%
$64,833 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$44,776 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
$81,005 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$219,763 Vol.
89%
5,0–6,0%
$78,537 Vol.
11%
6,0-7,0%
$83,563 Vol.
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
$62,549 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$53,031 Vol.
1%
9,0%+
$115,508 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5-5% and consensus forecasts from institutions such as the ADB, World Bank, OECD, and UBS—clustering around 4.4-4.7%—underpin the overwhelming market weighting on the 4.0-5.0% band. First-half results showed 4.7% expansion overall, with Q1 at 5% giving way to a 4.3% Q2 pace amid softening domestic demand and a continued property adjustment. Exports and high-tech manufacturing investment have provided resilience, while targeted fiscal and monetary measures, including incremental stimulus and policy implementation focus, support the range without expectations of a sharp rebound. Geopolitical factors such as energy price pressures from Middle East developments have exerted only modest effects so far, keeping lower or higher outcomes at minimal implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$877,689Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5-5% and consensus forecasts from institutions such as the ADB, World Bank, OECD, and UBS—clustering around 4.4-4.7%—underpin the overwhelming market weighting on the 4.0-5.0% band. First-half results showed 4.7% expansion overall, with Q1 at 5% giving way to a 4.3% Q2 pace amid softening domestic demand and a continued property adjustment. Exports and high-tech manufacturing investment have provided resilience, while targeted fiscal and monetary measures, including incremental stimulus and policy implementation focus, support the range without expectations of a sharp rebound. Geopolitical factors such as energy price pressures from Middle East developments have exerted only modest effects so far, keeping lower or higher outcomes at minimal implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$877,689Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 growth target of 4.5-5% and consensus forecasts from institutions such as the ADB, World Bank, OECD, and UBS—clustering around 4.4-4.7%—underpin the overwhelming market weighting on the 4.0-5.0% band. First-half results showed 4.7% expansion overall, with Q1 at 5% giving way to a 4.3% Q2 pace amid softening domestic demand and a continued property adjustment. Exports and high-tech manufacturing investment have provided resilience, while targeted fiscal and monetary measures, including incremental stimulus and policy implementation focus, support the range without expectations of a sharp rebound. Geopolitical factors such as energy price pressures from Middle East developments have exerted only modest effects so far, keeping lower or higher outcomes at minimal implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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