Germany's Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations reflect a closely balanced contest among low-positive and flat outcomes amid conflicting forces. Recent Q2 expansion of 0.2% QoQ beat forecasts but followed a subdued Q1, while full-year 2026 projections from the ECB SPF, ifo Institute, and OECD have been revised lower to the 0.6-0.8% range due to persistent energy-price pressures from the Middle East conflict. These headwinds are weighing on real incomes and investment, offset partially by expansionary fiscal policy and expected export support. With Q3 marking the tentative start of recovery per ifo, traders appear to price in modest momentum tempered by downside risks from inflation and external shocks, producing tight probabilities clustered around 0-1.2% quarterly growth.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1.0-1.2% 39%
≤0.0% 37%
0.1-0.3% 37%
0.4-0.6% 37%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 oct 2026
≤0.0%
37%
0.1-0.3%
37%
0.4-0.6%
37%
0.7-0.9%
28%
1.0-1.2%
39%
1.3%+
25%
1.0-1.2% 39%
≤0.0% 37%
0.1-0.3% 37%
0.4-0.6% 37%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 oct 2026
≤0.0%
$90 Vol.
37%
0.1-0.3%
$0 Vol.
37%
0.4-0.6%
$0 Vol.
37%
0.7-0.9%
$0 Vol.
28%
1.0-1.2%
$0 Vol.
39%
1.3%+
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany's Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations reflect a closely balanced contest among low-positive and flat outcomes amid conflicting forces. Recent Q2 expansion of 0.2% QoQ beat forecasts but followed a subdued Q1, while full-year 2026 projections from the ECB SPF, ifo Institute, and OECD have been revised lower to the 0.6-0.8% range due to persistent energy-price pressures from the Middle East conflict. These headwinds are weighing on real incomes and investment, offset partially by expansionary fiscal policy and expected export support. With Q3 marking the tentative start of recovery per ifo, traders appear to price in modest momentum tempered by downside risks from inflation and external shocks, producing tight probabilities clustered around 0-1.2% quarterly growth.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Volumen
$90Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany's Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations reflect a closely balanced contest among low-positive and flat outcomes amid conflicting forces. Recent Q2 expansion of 0.2% QoQ beat forecasts but followed a subdued Q1, while full-year 2026 projections from the ECB SPF, ifo Institute, and OECD have been revised lower to the 0.6-0.8% range due to persistent energy-price pressures from the Middle East conflict. These headwinds are weighing on real incomes and investment, offset partially by expansionary fiscal policy and expected export support. With Q3 marking the tentative start of recovery per ifo, traders appear to price in modest momentum tempered by downside risks from inflation and external shocks, producing tight probabilities clustered around 0-1.2% quarterly growth.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$90Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Germany's Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations reflect a closely balanced contest among low-positive and flat outcomes amid conflicting forces. Recent Q2 expansion of 0.2% QoQ beat forecasts but followed a subdued Q1, while full-year 2026 projections from the ECB SPF, ifo Institute, and OECD have been revised lower to the 0.6-0.8% range due to persistent energy-price pressures from the Middle East conflict. These headwinds are weighing on real incomes and investment, offset partially by expansionary fiscal policy and expected export support. With Q3 marking the tentative start of recovery per ifo, traders appear to price in modest momentum tempered by downside risks from inflation and external shocks, producing tight probabilities clustered around 0-1.2% quarterly growth.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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