High interest rates with the SELIC benchmark at 14.75% and fading fiscal stimulus represent the dominant forces capping Brazil's Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth, positioning the 0.3%–0.5% range as the market-implied consensus at 51.2%. Traders have priced in a clear moderation from the 1.1% expansion recorded in Q1, reflecting the drag from elevated inflation—exacerbated by the Iran-related energy shock—and retreating fixed investment after an unsustainable Q1 surge. Soybean export gains provide a partial offset, yet restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on domestic demand ahead of the September 1 release. The 0.0%–0.2% band at 34.5% captures downside risks if inflation persists or global commodity demand weakens further, while higher ranges remain low-probability given current leading indicators and analyst forecasts for 2026 annual growth near 1.6–1.7%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0.3%–0.5% 51.2%
0.0%–0.2% 35.8%
0,6%–0,8% 6.9%
1.2%–1.4% <1%
$48,150 Vol.
$48,150 Vol.
1 sep 2026
<0,0%
1%
0.0%–0.2%
33%
0.3%–0.5%
51%
0,6%–0,8%
7%
0,9%–1,1%
<1%
1.2%–1.4%
1%
≥1,5%
<1%
0.3%–0.5% 51.2%
0.0%–0.2% 35.8%
0,6%–0,8% 6.9%
1.2%–1.4% <1%
$48,150 Vol.
$48,150 Vol.
1 sep 2026
<0,0%
$1,346 Vol.
1%
0.0%–0.2%
$3,686 Vol.
33%
0.3%–0.5%
$17,446 Vol.
51%
0,6%–0,8%
$15,478 Vol.
7%
0,9%–1,1%
$6,320 Vol.
<1%
1.2%–1.4%
$2,882 Vol.
1%
≥1,5%
$992 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlHigh interest rates with the SELIC benchmark at 14.75% and fading fiscal stimulus represent the dominant forces capping Brazil's Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth, positioning the 0.3%–0.5% range as the market-implied consensus at 51.2%. Traders have priced in a clear moderation from the 1.1% expansion recorded in Q1, reflecting the drag from elevated inflation—exacerbated by the Iran-related energy shock—and retreating fixed investment after an unsustainable Q1 surge. Soybean export gains provide a partial offset, yet restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on domestic demand ahead of the September 1 release. The 0.0%–0.2% band at 34.5% captures downside risks if inflation persists or global commodity demand weakens further, while higher ranges remain low-probability given current leading indicators and analyst forecasts for 2026 annual growth near 1.6–1.7%.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volumen
$48,150Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlHigh interest rates with the SELIC benchmark at 14.75% and fading fiscal stimulus represent the dominant forces capping Brazil's Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth, positioning the 0.3%–0.5% range as the market-implied consensus at 51.2%. Traders have priced in a clear moderation from the 1.1% expansion recorded in Q1, reflecting the drag from elevated inflation—exacerbated by the Iran-related energy shock—and retreating fixed investment after an unsustainable Q1 surge. Soybean export gains provide a partial offset, yet restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on domestic demand ahead of the September 1 release. The 0.0%–0.2% band at 34.5% captures downside risks if inflation persists or global commodity demand weakens further, while higher ranges remain low-probability given current leading indicators and analyst forecasts for 2026 annual growth near 1.6–1.7%.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$48,150Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...High interest rates with the SELIC benchmark at 14.75% and fading fiscal stimulus represent the dominant forces capping Brazil's Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth, positioning the 0.3%–0.5% range as the market-implied consensus at 51.2%. Traders have priced in a clear moderation from the 1.1% expansion recorded in Q1, reflecting the drag from elevated inflation—exacerbated by the Iran-related energy shock—and retreating fixed investment after an unsustainable Q1 surge. Soybean export gains provide a partial offset, yet restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on domestic demand ahead of the September 1 release. The 0.0%–0.2% band at 34.5% captures downside risks if inflation persists or global commodity demand weakens further, while higher ranges remain low-probability given current leading indicators and analyst forecasts for 2026 annual growth near 1.6–1.7%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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