Recent July 2026 IPCA data showed annual inflation easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June, driven by slower food, transport, and fuel price growth amid retreating global oil prices. This reading returned inflation to the central bank's 1.5–4.5% target band, yet the government's updated 2026 forecast of 5.1% and Focus survey expectations near 4.3–4.6% sustain trader focus on the 5.00–5.49% range as the modal outcome. Persistent demand-driven pressures and the Copom's signal to keep the Selic rate restrictive, with only gradual quarter-point cuts to 14.00%, reinforce market-implied odds around this level while allowing for modest downside if supply-side relief continues into year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado5,00-5,49% 46.4%
4,50-4,99% 26.1%
5,50-5,99% 14.0%
4,00-4,49 % 8.1%
$95,578 Vol.
$95,578 Vol.
11 ene 2027
<3,00%
<1%
3,00-3,49%
1%
3,50-3,99%
3%
4,00-4,49 %
8%
4,50-4,99%
26%
5,00-5,49%
46%
5,50-5,99%
14%
6,00-6,49%
1%
6,50-6,99%
<1%
7,00%+
3%
5,00-5,49% 46.4%
4,50-4,99% 26.1%
5,50-5,99% 14.0%
4,00-4,49 % 8.1%
$95,578 Vol.
$95,578 Vol.
11 ene 2027
<3,00%
$5,727 Vol.
<1%
3,00-3,49%
$5,787 Vol.
1%
3,50-3,99%
$13,189 Vol.
3%
4,00-4,49 %
$14,048 Vol.
8%
4,50-4,99%
$15,186 Vol.
26%
5,00-5,49%
$14,212 Vol.
46%
5,50-5,99%
$9,462 Vol.
14%
6,00-6,49%
$6,485 Vol.
1%
6,50-6,99%
$6,683 Vol.
<1%
7,00%+
$4,799 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent July 2026 IPCA data showed annual inflation easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June, driven by slower food, transport, and fuel price growth amid retreating global oil prices. This reading returned inflation to the central bank's 1.5–4.5% target band, yet the government's updated 2026 forecast of 5.1% and Focus survey expectations near 4.3–4.6% sustain trader focus on the 5.00–5.49% range as the modal outcome. Persistent demand-driven pressures and the Copom's signal to keep the Selic rate restrictive, with only gradual quarter-point cuts to 14.00%, reinforce market-implied odds around this level while allowing for modest downside if supply-side relief continues into year-end.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volumen
$95,578Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent July 2026 IPCA data showed annual inflation easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June, driven by slower food, transport, and fuel price growth amid retreating global oil prices. This reading returned inflation to the central bank's 1.5–4.5% target band, yet the government's updated 2026 forecast of 5.1% and Focus survey expectations near 4.3–4.6% sustain trader focus on the 5.00–5.49% range as the modal outcome. Persistent demand-driven pressures and the Copom's signal to keep the Selic rate restrictive, with only gradual quarter-point cuts to 14.00%, reinforce market-implied odds around this level while allowing for modest downside if supply-side relief continues into year-end.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$95,578Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent July 2026 IPCA data showed annual inflation easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June, driven by slower food, transport, and fuel price growth amid retreating global oil prices. This reading returned inflation to the central bank's 1.5–4.5% target band, yet the government's updated 2026 forecast of 5.1% and Focus survey expectations near 4.3–4.6% sustain trader focus on the 5.00–5.49% range as the modal outcome. Persistent demand-driven pressures and the Copom's signal to keep the Selic rate restrictive, with only gradual quarter-point cuts to 14.00%, reinforce market-implied odds around this level while allowing for modest downside if supply-side relief continues into year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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