Recent developments point to subdued UK growth momentum heading into Q3 2026 amid elevated energy prices and persistent inflation pressures stemming from Middle East supply disruptions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 0.0–0.5% QoQ, reflecting trader consensus that annual forecasts of 0.8–1.4% translate into modest quarterly readings near the 0.2% baseline. The Bank of England’s 3.75% policy rate, held steady as CPI sits at 2.6% with projections rising toward 3.2% later in the year, alongside a loosening labor market and softer PMI readings, reinforce expectations of limited upside. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases, BoE communications, and any de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that could ease input costs and support consumer spending.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB del Reino Unido en el tercer trimestre de 2026 (QoQ)?
¿Crecimiento del PIB del Reino Unido en el tercer trimestre de 2026 (QoQ)?
0,0–0,1% 40%
0,2–0,3% 39%
0,4–0,5% 37%
Negativo 35%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 nov 2026
Negativo
35%
0,0–0,1%
40%
0,2–0,3%
39%
0,4–0,5%
37%
0,6–0,7%
34%
0,8–0,9%
6%
1,0%+
6%
0,0–0,1% 40%
0,2–0,3% 39%
0,4–0,5% 37%
Negativo 35%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 nov 2026
Negativo
$0 Vol.
35%
0,0–0,1%
$0 Vol.
40%
0,2–0,3%
$0 Vol.
39%
0,4–0,5%
$0 Vol.
37%
0,6–0,7%
$0 Vol.
34%
0,8–0,9%
$0 Vol.
6%
1,0%+
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent developments point to subdued UK growth momentum heading into Q3 2026 amid elevated energy prices and persistent inflation pressures stemming from Middle East supply disruptions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 0.0–0.5% QoQ, reflecting trader consensus that annual forecasts of 0.8–1.4% translate into modest quarterly readings near the 0.2% baseline. The Bank of England’s 3.75% policy rate, held steady as CPI sits at 2.6% with projections rising toward 3.2% later in the year, alongside a loosening labor market and softer PMI readings, reinforce expectations of limited upside. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases, BoE communications, and any de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that could ease input costs and support consumer spending.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
12 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent developments point to subdued UK growth momentum heading into Q3 2026 amid elevated energy prices and persistent inflation pressures stemming from Middle East supply disruptions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 0.0–0.5% QoQ, reflecting trader consensus that annual forecasts of 0.8–1.4% translate into modest quarterly readings near the 0.2% baseline. The Bank of England’s 3.75% policy rate, held steady as CPI sits at 2.6% with projections rising toward 3.2% later in the year, alongside a loosening labor market and softer PMI readings, reinforce expectations of limited upside. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases, BoE communications, and any de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that could ease input costs and support consumer spending.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
12 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments point to subdued UK growth momentum heading into Q3 2026 amid elevated energy prices and persistent inflation pressures stemming from Middle East supply disruptions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 0.0–0.5% QoQ, reflecting trader consensus that annual forecasts of 0.8–1.4% translate into modest quarterly readings near the 0.2% baseline. The Bank of England’s 3.75% policy rate, held steady as CPI sits at 2.6% with projections rising toward 3.2% later in the year, alongside a loosening labor market and softer PMI readings, reinforce expectations of limited upside. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation releases, BoE communications, and any de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that could ease input costs and support consumer spending.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes