Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, combined with sticky inflation near 3.4-4.1% PCE and a stable labor market at 4.3-4.5% unemployment, has created closely matched trader sentiment for Q3. The narrow edge for the 2.5-3.0% range at 48.5% over >=3.0% at 46.0% reflects offsetting forces: AI-driven investment and resilient consumer spending support upside, while tariff effects, elevated energy prices, and Fed policy held at 3.50-3.75% introduce downside risks. Lower brackets trade at 37-42%, underscoring uncertainty around the quarterly path versus annual forecasts clustered near 2.0-2.2%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2.5–3.0% 48%
2.0–2.5% 45%
≥3.0% 45%
1.5–2.0% 43%
NUEVO
NUEVO
29 oct 2026
<0.5%
40%
0.5–1.0%
37%
1.0–1.5%
41%
1.5–2.0%
43%
2.0–2.5%
45%
2.5–3.0%
48%
≥3.0%
45%
2.5–3.0% 48%
2.0–2.5% 45%
≥3.0% 45%
1.5–2.0% 43%
NUEVO
NUEVO
29 oct 2026
<0.5%
$0 Vol.
40%
0.5–1.0%
$0 Vol.
37%
1.0–1.5%
$0 Vol.
41%
1.5–2.0%
$0 Vol.
43%
2.0–2.5%
$0 Vol.
45%
2.5–3.0%
$0 Vol.
48%
≥3.0%
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, combined with sticky inflation near 3.4-4.1% PCE and a stable labor market at 4.3-4.5% unemployment, has created closely matched trader sentiment for Q3. The narrow edge for the 2.5-3.0% range at 48.5% over >=3.0% at 46.0% reflects offsetting forces: AI-driven investment and resilient consumer spending support upside, while tariff effects, elevated energy prices, and Fed policy held at 3.50-3.75% introduce downside risks. Lower brackets trade at 37-42%, underscoring uncertainty around the quarterly path versus annual forecasts clustered near 2.0-2.2%.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, combined with sticky inflation near 3.4-4.1% PCE and a stable labor market at 4.3-4.5% unemployment, has created closely matched trader sentiment for Q3. The narrow edge for the 2.5-3.0% range at 48.5% over >=3.0% at 46.0% reflects offsetting forces: AI-driven investment and resilient consumer spending support upside, while tariff effects, elevated energy prices, and Fed policy held at 3.50-3.75% introduce downside risks. Lower brackets trade at 37-42%, underscoring uncertainty around the quarterly path versus annual forecasts clustered near 2.0-2.2%.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, combined with sticky inflation near 3.4-4.1% PCE and a stable labor market at 4.3-4.5% unemployment, has created closely matched trader sentiment for Q3. The narrow edge for the 2.5-3.0% range at 48.5% over >=3.0% at 46.0% reflects offsetting forces: AI-driven investment and resilient consumer spending support upside, while tariff effects, elevated energy prices, and Fed policy held at 3.50-3.75% introduce downside risks. Lower brackets trade at 37-42%, underscoring uncertainty around the quarterly path versus annual forecasts clustered near 2.0-2.2%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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