Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed only 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth, below consensus, as domestic demand subtracted from the print amid flat consumption and weaker capex. Elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions are squeezing real household income and corporate margins heading into Q3, while the Bank of Japan’s June hike to a 1.0% policy rate and hawkish guidance have tightened financial conditions. These factors underpin the tight clustering of probabilities across contractionary and near-zero annualized buckets, with modest export resilience and potential policy support acting as key swing variables ahead of the Q3 release. Trader positioning reflects data-dependent uncertainty rather than a firm directional view.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado-0.8%–0.0% 29%
-2.4%– -1.6% 29%
-1.6%– -0.8% 26%
<-2.4% 24%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 nov 2026
<-2.4%
24%
-2.4%– -1.6%
29%
-1.6%– -0.8%
26%
-0.8%–0.0%
29%
0.0%–0.8%
24%
0.8%–1.6%
24%
1.6%–2.4%
24%
2.4%–3.2%
12%
3.2%–4.0%
9%
4.0%+
9%
-0.8%–0.0% 29%
-2.4%– -1.6% 29%
-1.6%– -0.8% 26%
<-2.4% 24%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 nov 2026
<-2.4%
$0 Vol.
24%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$0 Vol.
29%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$0 Vol.
26%
-0.8%–0.0%
$0 Vol.
29%
0.0%–0.8%
$0 Vol.
24%
0.8%–1.6%
$0 Vol.
24%
1.6%–2.4%
$0 Vol.
24%
2.4%–3.2%
$0 Vol.
12%
3.2%–4.0%
$0 Vol.
9%
4.0%+
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data showed only 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth, below consensus, as domestic demand subtracted from the print amid flat consumption and weaker capex. Elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions are squeezing real household income and corporate margins heading into Q3, while the Bank of Japan’s June hike to a 1.0% policy rate and hawkish guidance have tightened financial conditions. These factors underpin the tight clustering of probabilities across contractionary and near-zero annualized buckets, with modest export resilience and potential policy support acting as key swing variables ahead of the Q3 release. Trader positioning reflects data-dependent uncertainty rather than a firm directional view.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
16 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data showed only 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth, below consensus, as domestic demand subtracted from the print amid flat consumption and weaker capex. Elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions are squeezing real household income and corporate margins heading into Q3, while the Bank of Japan’s June hike to a 1.0% policy rate and hawkish guidance have tightened financial conditions. These factors underpin the tight clustering of probabilities across contractionary and near-zero annualized buckets, with modest export resilience and potential policy support acting as key swing variables ahead of the Q3 release. Trader positioning reflects data-dependent uncertainty rather than a firm directional view.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
16 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed only 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth, below consensus, as domestic demand subtracted from the print amid flat consumption and weaker capex. Elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions are squeezing real household income and corporate margins heading into Q3, while the Bank of Japan’s June hike to a 1.0% policy rate and hawkish guidance have tightened financial conditions. These factors underpin the tight clustering of probabilities across contractionary and near-zero annualized buckets, with modest export resilience and potential policy support acting as key swing variables ahead of the Q3 release. Trader positioning reflects data-dependent uncertainty rather than a firm directional view.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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