Mount Etna’s 2026 activity, tracked by Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), features repeated flank fissures and summit explosions since January, including the ongoing August phase with lava flows from vents near 2,800 m and ash emissions from Voragine crater. These events remain predominantly effusive with modest explosive output that has not yet produced the tephra volume or plume heights required for official VEI 2 classification. Historical records show Etna’s frequent Strombolian or lava-fountain episodes often register VEI 1 or lower, keeping market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption this year at 59% against. Continued high tremor but declining effusion rates, plus the absence of major ashfall or aviation disruptions beyond local levels, reinforce trader caution ahead of further INGV bulletins that could confirm or revise intensity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
0% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
0% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna’s 2026 activity, tracked by Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), features repeated flank fissures and summit explosions since January, including the ongoing August phase with lava flows from vents near 2,800 m and ash emissions from Voragine crater. These events remain predominantly effusive with modest explosive output that has not yet produced the tephra volume or plume heights required for official VEI 2 classification. Historical records show Etna’s frequent Strombolian or lava-fountain episodes often register VEI 1 or lower, keeping market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption this year at 59% against. Continued high tremor but declining effusion rates, plus the absence of major ashfall or aviation disruptions beyond local levels, reinforce trader caution ahead of further INGV bulletins that could confirm or revise intensity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mercado abierto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volumen
$21Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna’s 2026 activity, tracked by Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), features repeated flank fissures and summit explosions since January, including the ongoing August phase with lava flows from vents near 2,800 m and ash emissions from Voragine crater. These events remain predominantly effusive with modest explosive output that has not yet produced the tephra volume or plume heights required for official VEI 2 classification. Historical records show Etna’s frequent Strombolian or lava-fountain episodes often register VEI 1 or lower, keeping market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption this year at 59% against. Continued high tremor but declining effusion rates, plus the absence of major ashfall or aviation disruptions beyond local levels, reinforce trader caution ahead of further INGV bulletins that could confirm or revise intensity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volumen
$21Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna’s 2026 activity, tracked by Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), features repeated flank fissures and summit explosions since January, including the ongoing August phase with lava flows from vents near 2,800 m and ash emissions from Voragine crater. These events remain predominantly effusive with modest explosive output that has not yet produced the tephra volume or plume heights required for official VEI 2 classification. Historical records show Etna’s frequent Strombolian or lava-fountain episodes often register VEI 1 or lower, keeping market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption this year at 59% against. Continued high tremor but declining effusion rates, plus the absence of major ashfall or aviation disruptions beyond local levels, reinforce trader caution ahead of further INGV bulletins that could confirm or revise intensity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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