Recent forecasts from major models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a daily maximum near 23–24°C in Warsaw on August 20 under light cloud cover, gentle southwesterly flow, and limited warm-air advection. These conditions support modest daytime heating consistent with late-summer climatology, where average highs reach about 23°C. Trader consensus reflected in the tightly clustered 50% implied probabilities for 22–25°C outcomes captures residual uncertainty from timing of any residual showers, exact insolation, and minor model spread typical two days ahead. Lower-temperature bins carry negligible probability given the absence of strong cooling signals. Updated high-resolution runs and official agency guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise peak.