Anthropic’s commanding 86% implied probability stems from its recent launch of Claude Commerce Agents, an open-source Apache 2.0 blueprint for shopping and merchant agents optimized for retail, travel, and related verticals, plus ongoing advances in Claude’s agent SDK, tool-use reliability, and long-horizon task coherence. These capabilities have positioned its models ahead in practical agentic workflows, including computer use and multi-agent orchestration, as shown in enterprise benchmarks and real deployments. OpenAI’s 11.8% share reflects its latest GPT-6 Astra release claiming gains in software engineering and cybersecurity, yet traders appear to view Anthropic’s consistent edge in production-ready agents as decisive ahead of the end-of-September resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 86%
OpenAI 11.5%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$181,838 Vol.
$181,838 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
86%
OpenAI
12%
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Anthropic 86%
OpenAI 11.5%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$181,838 Vol.
$181,838 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
$48,668 Vol.
86%
OpenAI
$25,810 Vol.
12%
$7,419 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$7,096 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$7,022 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$7,087 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$7,544 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$6,935 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$7,505 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$7,333 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$6,966 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$7,029 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,098 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$6,903 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$7,020 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$6,884 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$6,980 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$539 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s commanding 86% implied probability stems from its recent launch of Claude Commerce Agents, an open-source Apache 2.0 blueprint for shopping and merchant agents optimized for retail, travel, and related verticals, plus ongoing advances in Claude’s agent SDK, tool-use reliability, and long-horizon task coherence. These capabilities have positioned its models ahead in practical agentic workflows, including computer use and multi-agent orchestration, as shown in enterprise benchmarks and real deployments. OpenAI’s 11.8% share reflects its latest GPT-6 Astra release claiming gains in software engineering and cybersecurity, yet traders appear to view Anthropic’s consistent edge in production-ready agents as decisive ahead of the end-of-September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
Volumen
$181,838Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s commanding 86% implied probability stems from its recent launch of Claude Commerce Agents, an open-source Apache 2.0 blueprint for shopping and merchant agents optimized for retail, travel, and related verticals, plus ongoing advances in Claude’s agent SDK, tool-use reliability, and long-horizon task coherence. These capabilities have positioned its models ahead in practical agentic workflows, including computer use and multi-agent orchestration, as shown in enterprise benchmarks and real deployments. OpenAI’s 11.8% share reflects its latest GPT-6 Astra release claiming gains in software engineering and cybersecurity, yet traders appear to view Anthropic’s consistent edge in production-ready agents as decisive ahead of the end-of-September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$181,838Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s commanding 86% implied probability stems from its recent launch of Claude Commerce Agents, an open-source Apache 2.0 blueprint for shopping and merchant agents optimized for retail, travel, and related verticals, plus ongoing advances in Claude’s agent SDK, tool-use reliability, and long-horizon task coherence. These capabilities have positioned its models ahead in practical agentic workflows, including computer use and multi-agent orchestration, as shown in enterprise benchmarks and real deployments. OpenAI’s 11.8% share reflects its latest GPT-6 Astra release claiming gains in software engineering and cybersecurity, yet traders appear to view Anthropic’s consistent edge in production-ready agents as decisive ahead of the end-of-September resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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