Traders see a tight race on LiveBench overall through September because Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 currently tops the contamination-free benchmark at 83.0, narrowly ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0, with both labs iterating rapidly on reasoning and agentic coding. Chinese contenders including Xiaomi, ByteDance, and Moonshot sit close behind in market-implied odds, reflecting recent gains in multilingual and cost-efficient models that could close the gap before the snapshot. Key swing factors include new “thinking” or Max Effort variants that boost category scores, upcoming developer conferences, and any surprise releases that shift the leaderboard in the final weeks. The 33% implied probability for Anthropic captures its current edge while acknowledging how quickly frontier labs can leapfrog one another on fresh questions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 33%
Xiaomi 28%
ByteDance 24%
Z.ai 23%
NEU
NEU
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
33%
Xiaomi
28%
ByteDance
24%
Z.ai
23%
OpenAI
21%
Alibaba
20%
Moonshot
19%
Amazon
17%
DeepSeek
16%
Tencent
15%
Meituan
15%
Baidu
10%
SpaceXAI
18%
Nvidia
6%
Thinky
15%
Mistral
14%
Meta
26%
MiniMax
14%
5%
Microsoft
4%
StepFun
3%
Anthropic 33%
Xiaomi 28%
ByteDance 24%
Z.ai 23%
NEU
NEU
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
$138 Vol.
33%
Xiaomi
$91 Vol.
28%
ByteDance
$91 Vol.
24%
Z.ai
$91 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$91 Vol.
21%
Alibaba
$91 Vol.
20%
Moonshot
$91 Vol.
19%
Amazon
$91 Vol.
17%
DeepSeek
$91 Vol.
16%
Tencent
$91 Vol.
15%
Meituan
$91 Vol.
15%
Baidu
$86 Vol.
10%
SpaceXAI
$86 Vol.
18%
Nvidia
$80 Vol.
6%
Thinky
$91 Vol.
15%
Mistral
$128 Vol.
14%
Meta
$91 Vol.
26%
MiniMax
$91 Vol.
14%
$85 Vol.
5%
Microsoft
$84 Vol.
4%
StepFun
$91 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Traders see a tight race on LiveBench overall through September because Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 currently tops the contamination-free benchmark at 83.0, narrowly ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0, with both labs iterating rapidly on reasoning and agentic coding. Chinese contenders including Xiaomi, ByteDance, and Moonshot sit close behind in market-implied odds, reflecting recent gains in multilingual and cost-efficient models that could close the gap before the snapshot. Key swing factors include new “thinking” or Max Effort variants that boost category scores, upcoming developer conferences, and any surprise releases that shift the leaderboard in the final weeks. The 33% implied probability for Anthropic captures its current edge while acknowledging how quickly frontier labs can leapfrog one another on fresh questions.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volumen
$1,967Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Traders see a tight race on LiveBench overall through September because Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 currently tops the contamination-free benchmark at 83.0, narrowly ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0, with both labs iterating rapidly on reasoning and agentic coding. Chinese contenders including Xiaomi, ByteDance, and Moonshot sit close behind in market-implied odds, reflecting recent gains in multilingual and cost-efficient models that could close the gap before the snapshot. Key swing factors include new “thinking” or Max Effort variants that boost category scores, upcoming developer conferences, and any surprise releases that shift the leaderboard in the final weeks. The 33% implied probability for Anthropic captures its current edge while acknowledging how quickly frontier labs can leapfrog one another on fresh questions.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$1,967Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tight race on LiveBench overall through September because Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 currently tops the contamination-free benchmark at 83.0, narrowly ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0, with both labs iterating rapidly on reasoning and agentic coding. Chinese contenders including Xiaomi, ByteDance, and Moonshot sit close behind in market-implied odds, reflecting recent gains in multilingual and cost-efficient models that could close the gap before the snapshot. Key swing factors include new “thinking” or Max Effort variants that boost category scores, upcoming developer conferences, and any surprise releases that shift the leaderboard in the final weeks. The 33% implied probability for Anthropic captures its current edge while acknowledging how quickly frontier labs can leapfrog one another on fresh questions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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