Anthropic holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment for the top LiveBench overall score by end of August, with its Claude Fable 5 and newly released Claude Opus 5 models posting leading category results on the contamination-resistant benchmark, including standout coding and reasoning performance. Multiple frontier labs remain tightly bunched near 50% implied probability because OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, Moonshot’s Kimi K3, and other recent releases continue to trade places on refreshed tasks. Key swing factors include any final August updates, effort-level optimizations, or benchmark refreshes that could alter the overall ranking before resolution. Traders are weighing demonstrated benchmark gains against the rapid iteration pace typical of the current model cycle.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMiniMax 44%
Meituan 34%
Moonshot 32%
DeepSeek 32%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
MiniMax
44%
Meituan
34%
Moonshot
32%
DeepSeek
32%
Amazon
32%
OpenAI
31%
Xiaomi
31%
Baidu
31%
Z.ai
30%
Meta
29%
29%
ByteDance
29%
Alibaba
28%
SpaceXAI
25%
Nvidia
25%
Thinky
23%
Tencent
18%
StepFun
18%
Mistral
15%
Microsoft
15%
Anthropic
47%
MiniMax 44%
Meituan 34%
Moonshot 32%
DeepSeek 32%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
MiniMax
$80 Vol.
44%
Meituan
$50 Vol.
34%
Moonshot
$50 Vol.
32%
DeepSeek
$50 Vol.
32%
Amazon
$50 Vol.
32%
OpenAI
$50 Vol.
31%
Xiaomi
$50 Vol.
31%
Baidu
$50 Vol.
31%
Z.ai
$50 Vol.
30%
Meta
$50 Vol.
29%
$50 Vol.
29%
ByteDance
$50 Vol.
29%
Alibaba
$50 Vol.
28%
SpaceXAI
$50 Vol.
25%
Nvidia
$50 Vol.
25%
Thinky
$50 Vol.
23%
Tencent
$50 Vol.
18%
StepFun
$50 Vol.
18%
Mistral
$50 Vol.
15%
Microsoft
$50 Vol.
15%
Anthropic
$70 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment for the top LiveBench overall score by end of August, with its Claude Fable 5 and newly released Claude Opus 5 models posting leading category results on the contamination-resistant benchmark, including standout coding and reasoning performance. Multiple frontier labs remain tightly bunched near 50% implied probability because OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, Moonshot’s Kimi K3, and other recent releases continue to trade places on refreshed tasks. Key swing factors include any final August updates, effort-level optimizations, or benchmark refreshes that could alter the overall ranking before resolution. Traders are weighing demonstrated benchmark gains against the rapid iteration pace typical of the current model cycle.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$1,100Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment for the top LiveBench overall score by end of August, with its Claude Fable 5 and newly released Claude Opus 5 models posting leading category results on the contamination-resistant benchmark, including standout coding and reasoning performance. Multiple frontier labs remain tightly bunched near 50% implied probability because OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, Moonshot’s Kimi K3, and other recent releases continue to trade places on refreshed tasks. Key swing factors include any final August updates, effort-level optimizations, or benchmark refreshes that could alter the overall ranking before resolution. Traders are weighing demonstrated benchmark gains against the rapid iteration pace typical of the current model cycle.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$1,100Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment for the top LiveBench overall score by end of August, with its Claude Fable 5 and newly released Claude Opus 5 models posting leading category results on the contamination-resistant benchmark, including standout coding and reasoning performance. Multiple frontier labs remain tightly bunched near 50% implied probability because OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, Moonshot’s Kimi K3, and other recent releases continue to trade places on refreshed tasks. Key swing factors include any final August updates, effort-level optimizations, or benchmark refreshes that could alter the overall ranking before resolution. Traders are weighing demonstrated benchmark gains against the rapid iteration pace typical of the current model cycle.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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