Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 48% for the best AI agent by end of October due to its Claude models topping recent agent and coding benchmarks, including strong showings on reasoning and workflow orchestration tasks. Moonshot's July Kimi K3 release and Alibaba's early August Qwen3.8-Max have narrowed the gap on specific agent metrics, driving their 20.5% and 16% odds while highlighting intensifying US-China competition in autonomous systems. OpenAI and others trail as traders weigh demonstrated capabilities against potential new releases, with the close spread among lower-probability options reflecting uncertainty over rapid iteration timelines and benchmark shifts in the coming months.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMoonshot 21%
Alibaba 16%
OpenAI 12%
Xiaomi 12%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Moonshot
21%
Alibaba
16%
OpenAI
12%
Xiaomi
12%
SpaceXAI
10%
ByteDance
6%
Amazon
5%
Baidu
5%
Mistral
4%
Microsoft
4%
Z.ai
3%
DeepSeek
3%
9%
MiniMax
3%
Nvidia
3%
Meituan
3%
Meta
2%
Anthropic
48%
Moonshot 21%
Alibaba 16%
OpenAI 12%
Xiaomi 12%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Moonshot
$37 Vol.
21%
Alibaba
$37 Vol.
16%
OpenAI
$45 Vol.
12%
Xiaomi
$47 Vol.
12%
SpaceXAI
$37 Vol.
10%
ByteDance
$55 Vol.
6%
Amazon
$61 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$53 Vol.
5%
Mistral
$53 Vol.
4%
Microsoft
$53 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$37 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$37 Vol.
3%
$37 Vol.
9%
MiniMax
$48 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$53 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$74 Vol.
3%
Meta
$42 Vol.
2%
Anthropic
$130 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 48% for the best AI agent by end of October due to its Claude models topping recent agent and coding benchmarks, including strong showings on reasoning and workflow orchestration tasks. Moonshot's July Kimi K3 release and Alibaba's early August Qwen3.8-Max have narrowed the gap on specific agent metrics, driving their 20.5% and 16% odds while highlighting intensifying US-China competition in autonomous systems. OpenAI and others trail as traders weigh demonstrated capabilities against potential new releases, with the close spread among lower-probability options reflecting uncertainty over rapid iteration timelines and benchmark shifts in the coming months.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volumen
$933Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 48% for the best AI agent by end of October due to its Claude models topping recent agent and coding benchmarks, including strong showings on reasoning and workflow orchestration tasks. Moonshot's July Kimi K3 release and Alibaba's early August Qwen3.8-Max have narrowed the gap on specific agent metrics, driving their 20.5% and 16% odds while highlighting intensifying US-China competition in autonomous systems. OpenAI and others trail as traders weigh demonstrated capabilities against potential new releases, with the close spread among lower-probability options reflecting uncertainty over rapid iteration timelines and benchmark shifts in the coming months.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$933Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 48% for the best AI agent by end of October due to its Claude models topping recent agent and coding benchmarks, including strong showings on reasoning and workflow orchestration tasks. Moonshot's July Kimi K3 release and Alibaba's early August Qwen3.8-Max have narrowed the gap on specific agent metrics, driving their 20.5% and 16% odds while highlighting intensifying US-China competition in autonomous systems. OpenAI and others trail as traders weigh demonstrated capabilities against potential new releases, with the close spread among lower-probability options reflecting uncertainty over rapid iteration timelines and benchmark shifts in the coming months.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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