Anthropic holds the highest implied probability among named companies at 48.5% due to its recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases, which top several Text Arena and MathArena leaderboards with strong multi-step reasoning scores. OpenAI follows at 27.5% on the strength of GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 variants that post competitive results on AIME-style benchmarks. The crowded field—with Meta, multiple Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi series, and “Other” options near or at 50%—reflects benchmark fragmentation, where math-specific evaluations often favor specialized or open-weight models over general-purpose leaders. Traders appear to price in continued rapid iteration through October, including potential new reasoning updates that could shift relative standings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 51%
OpenAI 11%
Meta 9%
Mistral 8%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Anthropic
51%
OpenAI
16%
Meta
9%
Mistral
8%
StepFun
5%
Alibaba
5%
MiniMax
5%
Amazon
5%
ByteDance
5%
Microsoft
5%
Tencent
4%
DeepSeek
4%
Moonshot
4%
Baidu
4%
SpaceXAI
3%
3%
Xiaomi
2%
Z.ai
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meituan
1%
Anthropic 51%
OpenAI 11%
Meta 9%
Mistral 8%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Anthropic
$138 Vol.
51%
OpenAI
$209 Vol.
16%
Meta
$103 Vol.
9%
Mistral
$127 Vol.
8%
StepFun
$121 Vol.
5%
Alibaba
$93 Vol.
5%
MiniMax
$115 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$167 Vol.
5%
ByteDance
$102 Vol.
5%
Microsoft
$77 Vol.
5%
Tencent
$171 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$179 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$93 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$77 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$95 Vol.
3%
$103 Vol.
3%
Xiaomi
$206 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$102 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$110 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$130 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds the highest implied probability among named companies at 48.5% due to its recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases, which top several Text Arena and MathArena leaderboards with strong multi-step reasoning scores. OpenAI follows at 27.5% on the strength of GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 variants that post competitive results on AIME-style benchmarks. The crowded field—with Meta, multiple Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi series, and “Other” options near or at 50%—reflects benchmark fragmentation, where math-specific evaluations often favor specialized or open-weight models over general-purpose leaders. Traders appear to price in continued rapid iteration through October, including potential new reasoning updates that could shift relative standings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volumen
$2,520Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds the highest implied probability among named companies at 48.5% due to its recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases, which top several Text Arena and MathArena leaderboards with strong multi-step reasoning scores. OpenAI follows at 27.5% on the strength of GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 variants that post competitive results on AIME-style benchmarks. The crowded field—with Meta, multiple Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi series, and “Other” options near or at 50%—reflects benchmark fragmentation, where math-specific evaluations often favor specialized or open-weight models over general-purpose leaders. Traders appear to price in continued rapid iteration through October, including potential new reasoning updates that could shift relative standings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$2,520Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the highest implied probability among named companies at 48.5% due to its recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases, which top several Text Arena and MathArena leaderboards with strong multi-step reasoning scores. OpenAI follows at 27.5% on the strength of GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 variants that post competitive results on AIME-style benchmarks. The crowded field—with Meta, multiple Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi series, and “Other” options near or at 50%—reflects benchmark fragmentation, where math-specific evaluations often favor specialized or open-weight models over general-purpose leaders. Traders appear to price in continued rapid iteration through October, including potential new reasoning updates that could shift relative standings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen