Traders see a tight contest for third-best AI lab by end of October, with Z.ai and DeepSeek holding the highest implied probabilities around 21% amid strong recent showings on benchmarks like SWE-Bench and Artificial Analysis leaderboards. Chinese labs benefit from rapid iteration on models such as GLM-5 and DeepSeek V4 variants, delivering competitive reasoning and coding performance at lower costs than Western counterparts, which has shifted sentiment away from pricier frontier offerings. Google follows at 17% thanks to Gemini advancements in multimodal and agentic tasks, while others like Moonshot and Alibaba trail as open-weight and efficiency gains keep multiple contenders viable. Upcoming model updates or benchmark shifts before October could alter the order, reflecting the fast pace of AI capability improvements across the sector.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertZ.ai 31%
ByteDance 19%
Google 18%
Moonshot 13%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Z.ai
25%
ByteDance
17%
18%
Moonshot
13%
Alibaba
11%
Anthropic
10%
Baidu
10%
Meituan
8%
Xiaomi
8%
DeepSeek
7%
Mistral
7%
Meta
7%
Tencent
7%
MiniMax
6%
OpenAI
6%
StepFun
6%
SpaceXAI
5%
Amazon
5%
Nvidia
5%
Thinky
5%
Microsoft
5%
Z.ai 31%
ByteDance 19%
Google 18%
Moonshot 13%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Z.ai
$67 Vol.
25%
ByteDance
$99 Vol.
17%
$74 Vol.
18%
Moonshot
$41 Vol.
13%
Alibaba
$41 Vol.
11%
Anthropic
$46 Vol.
10%
Baidu
$41 Vol.
10%
Meituan
$103 Vol.
8%
Xiaomi
$129 Vol.
8%
DeepSeek
$41 Vol.
7%
Mistral
$131 Vol.
7%
Meta
$51 Vol.
7%
Tencent
$103 Vol.
7%
MiniMax
$179 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$39 Vol.
6%
StepFun
$102 Vol.
6%
SpaceXAI
$46 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$46 Vol.
5%
Nvidia
$96 Vol.
5%
Thinky
$34 Vol.
5%
Microsoft
$109 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tight contest for third-best AI lab by end of October, with Z.ai and DeepSeek holding the highest implied probabilities around 21% amid strong recent showings on benchmarks like SWE-Bench and Artificial Analysis leaderboards. Chinese labs benefit from rapid iteration on models such as GLM-5 and DeepSeek V4 variants, delivering competitive reasoning and coding performance at lower costs than Western counterparts, which has shifted sentiment away from pricier frontier offerings. Google follows at 17% thanks to Gemini advancements in multimodal and agentic tasks, while others like Moonshot and Alibaba trail as open-weight and efficiency gains keep multiple contenders viable. Upcoming model updates or benchmark shifts before October could alter the order, reflecting the fast pace of AI capability improvements across the sector.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volumen
$1,627Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tight contest for third-best AI lab by end of October, with Z.ai and DeepSeek holding the highest implied probabilities around 21% amid strong recent showings on benchmarks like SWE-Bench and Artificial Analysis leaderboards. Chinese labs benefit from rapid iteration on models such as GLM-5 and DeepSeek V4 variants, delivering competitive reasoning and coding performance at lower costs than Western counterparts, which has shifted sentiment away from pricier frontier offerings. Google follows at 17% thanks to Gemini advancements in multimodal and agentic tasks, while others like Moonshot and Alibaba trail as open-weight and efficiency gains keep multiple contenders viable. Upcoming model updates or benchmark shifts before October could alter the order, reflecting the fast pace of AI capability improvements across the sector.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$1,627Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tight contest for third-best AI lab by end of October, with Z.ai and DeepSeek holding the highest implied probabilities around 21% amid strong recent showings on benchmarks like SWE-Bench and Artificial Analysis leaderboards. Chinese labs benefit from rapid iteration on models such as GLM-5 and DeepSeek V4 variants, delivering competitive reasoning and coding performance at lower costs than Western counterparts, which has shifted sentiment away from pricier frontier offerings. Google follows at 17% thanks to Gemini advancements in multimodal and agentic tasks, while others like Moonshot and Alibaba trail as open-weight and efficiency gains keep multiple contenders viable. Upcoming model updates or benchmark shifts before October could alter the order, reflecting the fast pace of AI capability improvements across the sector.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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