Traders see near-even odds across frontrunners for the top LiveBench coding score by end of October because Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants currently post the strongest verified results on the benchmark’s refreshed coding tasks, with DeepSeek, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Google Gemini models close behind on agentic and SWE-bench-style evaluations. Recent frontier releases have narrowed gaps, while open-weight and Chinese labs continue closing performance deltas through scale and specialization. Key swing factors include any new model drops, fine-tunes, or context-window improvements before the October snapshot, plus LiveBench’s contamination-free refresh cycle that can reorder rankings quickly. Market-implied probabilities around 20-27% for the named leaders capture this fluid, multi-player contest where small capability edges or timing surprises could shift the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAmazon 31%
Z.ai 30%
Anthropic 27%
OpenAI 26%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Amazon
25%
Z.ai
27%
Anthropic
22%
OpenAI
26%
StepFun
13%
ByteDance
19%
SpaceXAI
25%
Meituan
20%
Meta
13%
Moonshot
19%
17%
DeepSeek
16%
Nvidia
14%
Tencent
14%
Baidu
12%
Xiaomi
11%
Mistral
10%
MiniMax
9%
Alibaba
9%
Thinky
8%
Microsoft
4%
Amazon 31%
Z.ai 30%
Anthropic 27%
OpenAI 26%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Amazon
$54 Vol.
25%
Z.ai
$38 Vol.
27%
Anthropic
$46 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$13 Vol.
26%
StepFun
$38 Vol.
13%
ByteDance
$33 Vol.
19%
SpaceXAI
$33 Vol.
25%
Meituan
$13 Vol.
20%
Meta
$33 Vol.
13%
Moonshot
$33 Vol.
19%
$13 Vol.
17%
DeepSeek
$13 Vol.
16%
Nvidia
$79 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$33 Vol.
14%
Baidu
$44 Vol.
12%
Xiaomi
$53 Vol.
11%
Mistral
$65 Vol.
10%
MiniMax
$74 Vol.
9%
Alibaba
$33 Vol.
9%
Thinky
$86 Vol.
8%
Microsoft
$53 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Traders see near-even odds across frontrunners for the top LiveBench coding score by end of October because Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants currently post the strongest verified results on the benchmark’s refreshed coding tasks, with DeepSeek, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Google Gemini models close behind on agentic and SWE-bench-style evaluations. Recent frontier releases have narrowed gaps, while open-weight and Chinese labs continue closing performance deltas through scale and specialization. Key swing factors include any new model drops, fine-tunes, or context-window improvements before the October snapshot, plus LiveBench’s contamination-free refresh cycle that can reorder rankings quickly. Market-implied probabilities around 20-27% for the named leaders capture this fluid, multi-player contest where small capability edges or timing surprises could shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volumen
$871Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Traders see near-even odds across frontrunners for the top LiveBench coding score by end of October because Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants currently post the strongest verified results on the benchmark’s refreshed coding tasks, with DeepSeek, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Google Gemini models close behind on agentic and SWE-bench-style evaluations. Recent frontier releases have narrowed gaps, while open-weight and Chinese labs continue closing performance deltas through scale and specialization. Key swing factors include any new model drops, fine-tunes, or context-window improvements before the October snapshot, plus LiveBench’s contamination-free refresh cycle that can reorder rankings quickly. Market-implied probabilities around 20-27% for the named leaders capture this fluid, multi-player contest where small capability edges or timing surprises could shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$871Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see near-even odds across frontrunners for the top LiveBench coding score by end of October because Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants currently post the strongest verified results on the benchmark’s refreshed coding tasks, with DeepSeek, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Google Gemini models close behind on agentic and SWE-bench-style evaluations. Recent frontier releases have narrowed gaps, while open-weight and Chinese labs continue closing performance deltas through scale and specialization. Key swing factors include any new model drops, fine-tunes, or context-window improvements before the October snapshot, plus LiveBench’s contamination-free refresh cycle that can reorder rankings quickly. Market-implied probabilities around 20-27% for the named leaders capture this fluid, multi-player contest where small capability edges or timing surprises could shift the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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