Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven its commanding market-implied odds near 80 percent for the top AI model by end of September. Multiple independent leaderboards show the model posting the highest composite scores in reasoning, agentic coding, and long-context tasks, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched days later. Traders appear to view the narrow remaining window and absence of comparable upcoming releases from OpenAI, Google, or Meta as limiting the chance of a late reversal, despite OpenAI’s claims of cybersecurity and software-engineering edges. Price reductions on Anthropic’s frontier models have further reinforced developer and enterprise adoption momentum heading into the resolution date.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 81%
OpenAI 16.3%
Meta 2.9%
Google 1.1%
$86,344 Vol.
$86,344 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
81%
OpenAI
16%
Meta
3%
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 81%
OpenAI 16.3%
Meta 2.9%
Google 1.1%
$86,344 Vol.
$86,344 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
$37,572 Vol.
81%
OpenAI
$8,525 Vol.
16%
Meta
$7,909 Vol.
3%
$5,482 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$3,733 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,212 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,852 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,807 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$769 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,431 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$436 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$436 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,313 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$930 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,554 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$436 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$920 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,360 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$762 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven its commanding market-implied odds near 80 percent for the top AI model by end of September. Multiple independent leaderboards show the model posting the highest composite scores in reasoning, agentic coding, and long-context tasks, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched days later. Traders appear to view the narrow remaining window and absence of comparable upcoming releases from OpenAI, Google, or Meta as limiting the chance of a late reversal, despite OpenAI’s claims of cybersecurity and software-engineering edges. Price reductions on Anthropic’s frontier models have further reinforced developer and enterprise adoption momentum heading into the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volumen
$86,344Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven its commanding market-implied odds near 80 percent for the top AI model by end of September. Multiple independent leaderboards show the model posting the highest composite scores in reasoning, agentic coding, and long-context tasks, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched days later. Traders appear to view the narrow remaining window and absence of comparable upcoming releases from OpenAI, Google, or Meta as limiting the chance of a late reversal, despite OpenAI’s claims of cybersecurity and software-engineering edges. Price reductions on Anthropic’s frontier models have further reinforced developer and enterprise adoption momentum heading into the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$86,344Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven its commanding market-implied odds near 80 percent for the top AI model by end of September. Multiple independent leaderboards show the model posting the highest composite scores in reasoning, agentic coding, and long-context tasks, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched days later. Traders appear to view the narrow remaining window and absence of comparable upcoming releases from OpenAI, Google, or Meta as limiting the chance of a late reversal, despite OpenAI’s claims of cybersecurity and software-engineering edges. Price reductions on Anthropic’s frontier models have further reinforced developer and enterprise adoption momentum heading into the resolution date.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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