OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing and sustained private-market momentum at an $852 billion valuation underpin the 40.5% market-implied probability for a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap. A recent $7 billion employee tender offer at that level, combined with $2 billion monthly revenue run-rate growth and enterprise revenue scaling toward parity with consumer, signals robust fundamentals that traders extrapolate into public-market multiples exceeding recent private rounds. Timing uncertainty—shifting between late 2026 and 2027—explains the 9.4% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027, while high cash burn and unprofitability temper expectations for lower tranches. Upcoming regulatory clarity and any S-1 amendments remain the next catalysts likely to influence these aggregated trader odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOpenAI IPO Closing Marktkapitalisierung
OpenAI IPO Closing Marktkapitalisierung
1,5T+ 40.4%
1,25T–1,5T 22%
1–1,25 Billionen 18.1%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio. 10%
$105,182 Vol.
$105,182 Vol.
31. Dez. 2027
<500 Mrd.
1%
500–750 Mrd.
2%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio.
10%
1–1,25 Billionen
18%
1,25T–1,5T
22%
1,5T+
40%
Kein Börsengang bis zum 31. Dezember 2027
9%
1,5T+ 40.4%
1,25T–1,5T 22%
1–1,25 Billionen 18.1%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio. 10%
$105,182 Vol.
$105,182 Vol.
31. Dez. 2027
<500 Mrd.
$8,050 Vol.
1%
500–750 Mrd.
$9,889 Vol.
2%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio.
$10,925 Vol.
10%
1–1,25 Billionen
$15,107 Vol.
18%
1,25T–1,5T
$10,346 Vol.
22%
1,5T+
$27,961 Vol.
40%
Kein Börsengang bis zum 31. Dezember 2027
$22,904 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing and sustained private-market momentum at an $852 billion valuation underpin the 40.5% market-implied probability for a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap. A recent $7 billion employee tender offer at that level, combined with $2 billion monthly revenue run-rate growth and enterprise revenue scaling toward parity with consumer, signals robust fundamentals that traders extrapolate into public-market multiples exceeding recent private rounds. Timing uncertainty—shifting between late 2026 and 2027—explains the 9.4% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027, while high cash burn and unprofitability temper expectations for lower tranches. Upcoming regulatory clarity and any S-1 amendments remain the next catalysts likely to influence these aggregated trader odds.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volumen
$105,182Enddatum
31. Dez. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing and sustained private-market momentum at an $852 billion valuation underpin the 40.5% market-implied probability for a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap. A recent $7 billion employee tender offer at that level, combined with $2 billion monthly revenue run-rate growth and enterprise revenue scaling toward parity with consumer, signals robust fundamentals that traders extrapolate into public-market multiples exceeding recent private rounds. Timing uncertainty—shifting between late 2026 and 2027—explains the 9.4% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027, while high cash burn and unprofitability temper expectations for lower tranches. Upcoming regulatory clarity and any S-1 amendments remain the next catalysts likely to influence these aggregated trader odds.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$105,182Enddatum
31. Dez. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing and sustained private-market momentum at an $852 billion valuation underpin the 40.5% market-implied probability for a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap. A recent $7 billion employee tender offer at that level, combined with $2 billion monthly revenue run-rate growth and enterprise revenue scaling toward parity with consumer, signals robust fundamentals that traders extrapolate into public-market multiples exceeding recent private rounds. Timing uncertainty—shifting between late 2026 and 2027—explains the 9.4% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027, while high cash burn and unprofitability temper expectations for lower tranches. Upcoming regulatory clarity and any S-1 amendments remain the next catalysts likely to influence these aggregated trader odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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