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icon for Metas "Watermelon" -Modell, herausgegeben von...?
Technik·AI

Metas "Watermelon" -Modell, herausgegeben von...?

icon for Metas "Watermelon" -Modell, herausgegeben von...?
Technik·AI

Metas "Watermelon" -Modell, herausgegeben von...?

NEU
30. Sep. 2026
Polymarket

$947 Vol.

Polymarket

30. September

$20 Vol.

14%

31. Oktober

$726 Vol.

59%

30. November

$201 Vol.

79%

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang stated in a July 2026 internal town hall that the company’s next frontier large language model, codenamed Watermelon, has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using an order of magnitude more compute than the prior Muse Spark series. Internal documents from August point to an October 2026 target release, positioning the model as a key step in closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic on coding and agentic capabilities. Recent September updates to Muse Spark 1.3 demonstrate incremental progress in those areas. Trader sentiment reflects heavy 2026 infrastructure spending and the shift from internal claims to verifiable external benchmarks, with resolution hinging on whether Meta meets the October window amid typical training and deployment uncertainties.

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$947
Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang stated in a July 2026 internal town hall that the company’s next frontier large language model, codenamed Watermelon, has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using an order of magnitude more compute than the prior Muse Spark series. Internal documents from August point to an October 2026 target release, positioning the model as a key step in closing the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic on coding and agentic capabilities. Recent September updates to Muse Spark 1.3 demonstrate incremental progress in those areas. Trader sentiment reflects heavy 2026 infrastructure spending and the shift from internal claims to verifiable external benchmarks, with resolution hinging on whether Meta meets the October window amid typical training and deployment uncertainties.

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$947
Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...

Verwandte

icon for Wird das nächste Muse Spark (1.4+) bis zum 31. Oktober 2026 veröffentlicht?

Wird das nächste Muse Spark (1.4+) bis zum 31. Oktober 2026 veröffentlicht?

53%
Ja
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Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by December 31, 2026?

49%
icon for Nächstes OpenAI GPT-Bildmodell (2.1+) bis zum 30. September 2026 veröffentlicht?

Nächstes OpenAI GPT-Bildmodell (2.1+) bis zum 30. September 2026 veröffentlicht?

73%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Metas "Watermelon" -Modell, herausgegeben von...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 3 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „30. November" mit 79%, gefolgt von „31. Oktober" mit 59%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 79¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 79% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Metas "Watermelon" -Modell, herausgegeben von...?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Sep 4, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Metas "Watermelon" -Modell, herausgegeben von...?" ist „30. November" mit 79%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 79% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „31. Oktober" mit 59%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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