Democratic prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms remain the central driver behind the 68.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Recent attempts, including Rep. Al Green’s August 2026 resolution citing immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP, were tabled 232-147 on September 15 with significant Democratic support for tabling or present votes, reflecting leadership caution ahead of elections. Statements from figures such as Rep. Jamie Raskin indicate willingness to pursue formal proceedings if Democrats secure a majority, building on prior failed resolutions and policy disputes. Traders appear to price in the historical precedent of House majorities advancing impeachment when partisan incentives align, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and the remaining term timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
69% 概率
$102,681 交易量
$102,681 交易量
2029-01-19
赚 3.25% 收益
是
69% 概率
$102,681 交易量
$102,681 交易量
2029-01-19
赚 3.25% 收益
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democratic prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms remain the central driver behind the 68.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Recent attempts, including Rep. Al Green’s August 2026 resolution citing immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP, were tabled 232-147 on September 15 with significant Democratic support for tabling or present votes, reflecting leadership caution ahead of elections. Statements from figures such as Rep. Jamie Raskin indicate willingness to pursue formal proceedings if Democrats secure a majority, building on prior failed resolutions and policy disputes. Traders appear to price in the historical precedent of House majorities advancing impeachment when partisan incentives align, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and the remaining term timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$102,681结束日期
2029-01-20市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democratic prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms remain the central driver behind the 68.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Recent attempts, including Rep. Al Green’s August 2026 resolution citing immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP, were tabled 232-147 on September 15 with significant Democratic support for tabling or present votes, reflecting leadership caution ahead of elections. Statements from figures such as Rep. Jamie Raskin indicate willingness to pursue formal proceedings if Democrats secure a majority, building on prior failed resolutions and policy disputes. Traders appear to price in the historical precedent of House majorities advancing impeachment when partisan incentives align, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and the remaining term timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
交易量
$102,681结束日期
2029-01-20市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETDemocratic prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms remain the central driver behind the 68.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Recent attempts, including Rep. Al Green’s August 2026 resolution citing immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP, were tabled 232-147 on September 15 with significant Democratic support for tabling or present votes, reflecting leadership caution ahead of elections. Statements from figures such as Rep. Jamie Raskin indicate willingness to pursue formal proceedings if Democrats secure a majority, building on prior failed resolutions and policy disputes. Traders appear to price in the historical precedent of House majorities advancing impeachment when partisan incentives align, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and the remaining term timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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