Traders assign a 93% implied probability to fewer than five posts by the Khamenei account in the September 18-25 window, reflecting the official channels' established pattern of minimal activity outside acute crises. The @khamenei_ir and related accounts have averaged well under one original post per day in recent months, with only isolated statements on resistance themes or archival content, consistent with the current leader's reduced public visibility and security-driven restraint following prior conflicts. This low baseline aligns with historical norms for the office when no immediate escalations or policy announcements are scheduled. A surge beyond five posts would require verifiable triggers such as renewed military exchanges, major diplomatic statements on the Strait of Hormuz or regional alliances, or formal addresses tied to upcoming institutional events, any of which remain possible but unconfirmed in the immediate outlook.