**Trader consensus strongly favors fewer than five posts by Khamenei-linked accounts in the September 15–22, 2026 window, with that bin priced at 90%.** All higher ranges sit below 1%, reflecting expectations of minimal activity. This positioning stems from Mojtaba Khamenei’s extended low-visibility period since sustaining injuries in earlier US-Israeli strikes. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly confirmed on September 12 that the supreme leader remains alive, in authority, and conducting duties, yet provided no details on location or schedule, underscoring ongoing security-driven secrecy. Official X accounts associated with the leadership have primarily recirculated archival material in recent weeks rather than issuing new statements at high frequency. No major diplomatic summits, parliamentary sessions, or religious observances fall within the resolution window that would typically prompt increased output. Historical patterns under both the late Ali Khamenei and the current leader show preference for formal written messages or other channels over rapid social-media posting during periods of heightened regional tension. Late developments capable of altering this trajectory would require a significant public statement or escalation prompting multiple official releases.