The National Hurricane Center's latest outlook highlights a tropical wave over the Central Pacific more than 1,000 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, with disorganized showers and thunderstorms amid environmental conditions supportive of development. Forecasters expect this system to organize into a tropical depression within a few days as it tracks west-northwestward, directly supporting the market's 80% implied probability of formation by August 14. Broader seasonal factors, including above-normal activity driven by El Niño-enhanced warmth and reduced wind shear across the eastern and central basins, further bolster trader consensus. Historical peaks in Pacific cyclone genesis during mid-August add climatological context, though model consensus on timing remains the key near-term catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月14日之前，太平洋或中太平洋盆地是否会形成热带气旋？
8月14日之前，太平洋或中太平洋盆地是否会形成热带气旋？
80% 概率
最新
最新
2026-08-15
80% 概率
最新
最新
2026-08-15
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's latest outlook highlights a tropical wave over the Central Pacific more than 1,000 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, with disorganized showers and thunderstorms amid environmental conditions supportive of development. Forecasters expect this system to organize into a tropical depression within a few days as it tracks west-northwestward, directly supporting the market's 80% implied probability of formation by August 14. Broader seasonal factors, including above-normal activity driven by El Niño-enhanced warmth and reduced wind shear across the eastern and central basins, further bolster trader consensus. Historical peaks in Pacific cyclone genesis during mid-August add climatological context, though model consensus on timing remains the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
交易量
$798结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's latest outlook highlights a tropical wave over the Central Pacific more than 1,000 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, with disorganized showers and thunderstorms amid environmental conditions supportive of development. Forecasters expect this system to organize into a tropical depression within a few days as it tracks west-northwestward, directly supporting the market's 80% implied probability of formation by August 14. Broader seasonal factors, including above-normal activity driven by El Niño-enhanced warmth and reduced wind shear across the eastern and central basins, further bolster trader consensus. Historical peaks in Pacific cyclone genesis during mid-August add climatological context, though model consensus on timing remains the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
交易量
$798结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center's latest outlook highlights a tropical wave over the Central Pacific more than 1,000 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, with disorganized showers and thunderstorms amid environmental conditions supportive of development. Forecasters expect this system to organize into a tropical depression within a few days as it tracks west-northwestward, directly supporting the market's 80% implied probability of formation by August 14. Broader seasonal factors, including above-normal activity driven by El Niño-enhanced warmth and reduced wind shear across the eastern and central basins, further bolster trader consensus. Historical peaks in Pacific cyclone genesis during mid-August add climatological context, though model consensus on timing remains the key near-term catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题