As of early August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced only two named storms—Arthur in mid-June and Bertha in July—both remaining below hurricane strength with peak winds of 45–60 mph, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. NOAA’s May outlook for a below-normal season (3–6 hurricanes total) and the absence of any Category 1 or stronger systems through early August align with climatology showing the first Atlantic hurricane typically forming near August 11. Current steering patterns and suppressed activity have kept early development weak, positioning Cristobal at the highest market-implied probability while traders assign meaningful odds to Dolly or Edouard if the next system intensifies rapidly or if the season’s first hurricane arrives later amid ongoing below-average conditions. Updated National Hurricane Center forecasts and model consensus in the coming weeks will refine these probabilities ahead of the seasonal peak.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Edouard 33%
多莉 11%
保莱特 10%
Marco 9%
最新
最新
2026-12-01
Cristobal
43%
多莉
30%
Edouard
19%
Fay
5%
冈萨洛
4%
汉娜
5%
伊赛亚斯
5%
约瑟芬
5%
Kyle
4%
Leah
3%
Marco
9%
Nana
9%
奥马尔
9%
保莱特
10%
Rene
5%
萨莉
3%
泰迪
5%
Vicky
8%
威尔弗雷德
5%
其他
4%
Edouard 33%
多莉 11%
保莱特 10%
Marco 9%
最新
最新
2026-12-01
Cristobal
$162 交易量
43%
多莉
$86 交易量
30%
Edouard
$222 交易量
19%
Fay
$72 交易量
5%
冈萨洛
$72 交易量
4%
汉娜
$73 交易量
5%
伊赛亚斯
$88 交易量
5%
约瑟芬
$55 交易量
5%
Kyle
$94 交易量
4%
Leah
$59 交易量
3%
Marco
$107 交易量
9%
Nana
$51 交易量
9%
奥马尔
$63 交易量
9%
保莱特
$67 交易量
10%
Rene
$63 交易量
5%
萨莉
$131 交易量
3%
泰迪
$63 交易量
5%
Vicky
$90 交易量
8%
威尔弗雷德
$118 交易量
5%
其他
$63 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. As of early August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced only two named storms—Arthur in mid-June and Bertha in July—both remaining below hurricane strength with peak winds of 45–60 mph, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. NOAA’s May outlook for a below-normal season (3–6 hurricanes total) and the absence of any Category 1 or stronger systems through early August align with climatology showing the first Atlantic hurricane typically forming near August 11. Current steering patterns and suppressed activity have kept early development weak, positioning Cristobal at the highest market-implied probability while traders assign meaningful odds to Dolly or Edouard if the next system intensifies rapidly or if the season’s first hurricane arrives later amid ongoing below-average conditions. Updated National Hurricane Center forecasts and model consensus in the coming weeks will refine these probabilities ahead of the seasonal peak.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
交易量
$1,801结束日期
2026-12-02市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. As of early August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced only two named storms—Arthur in mid-June and Bertha in July—both remaining below hurricane strength with peak winds of 45–60 mph, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. NOAA’s May outlook for a below-normal season (3–6 hurricanes total) and the absence of any Category 1 or stronger systems through early August align with climatology showing the first Atlantic hurricane typically forming near August 11. Current steering patterns and suppressed activity have kept early development weak, positioning Cristobal at the highest market-implied probability while traders assign meaningful odds to Dolly or Edouard if the next system intensifies rapidly or if the season’s first hurricane arrives later amid ongoing below-average conditions. Updated National Hurricane Center forecasts and model consensus in the coming weeks will refine these probabilities ahead of the seasonal peak.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
交易量
$1,801结束日期
2026-12-02市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...As of early August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced only two named storms—Arthur in mid-June and Bertha in July—both remaining below hurricane strength with peak winds of 45–60 mph, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. NOAA’s May outlook for a below-normal season (3–6 hurricanes total) and the absence of any Category 1 or stronger systems through early August align with climatology showing the first Atlantic hurricane typically forming near August 11. Current steering patterns and suppressed activity have kept early development weak, positioning Cristobal at the highest market-implied probability while traders assign meaningful odds to Dolly or Edouard if the next system intensifies rapidly or if the season’s first hurricane arrives later amid ongoing below-average conditions. Updated National Hurricane Center forecasts and model consensus in the coming weeks will refine these probabilities ahead of the seasonal peak.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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