**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” on Turkey moving on a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the ruling AKP-MHP bloc’s 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament—well short of the 360 needed to call a referendum or 400 for direct passage.** Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş in June and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek more recently have reiterated the need to replace the 1982 charter, while an AKP commission continues internal drafting work. However, recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament legislation passed in August with cross-party support, rather than constitutional reform. Opposition parties remain divided or constrained, and no parliamentary vote, public consultation, or referendum timeline has advanced in the final months of the year. These structural and timing constraints underpin the current trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
9% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
9% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” on Turkey moving on a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the ruling AKP-MHP bloc’s 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament—well short of the 360 needed to call a referendum or 400 for direct passage.** Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş in June and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek more recently have reiterated the need to replace the 1982 charter, while an AKP commission continues internal drafting work. However, recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament legislation passed in August with cross-party support, rather than constitutional reform. Opposition parties remain divided or constrained, and no parliamentary vote, public consultation, or referendum timeline has advanced in the final months of the year. These structural and timing constraints underpin the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$7,475结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” on Turkey moving on a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the ruling AKP-MHP bloc’s 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament—well short of the 360 needed to call a referendum or 400 for direct passage.** Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş in June and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek more recently have reiterated the need to replace the 1982 charter, while an AKP commission continues internal drafting work. However, recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament legislation passed in August with cross-party support, rather than constitutional reform. Opposition parties remain divided or constrained, and no parliamentary vote, public consultation, or referendum timeline has advanced in the final months of the year. These structural and timing constraints underpin the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,475结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” on Turkey moving on a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the ruling AKP-MHP bloc’s 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament—well short of the 360 needed to call a referendum or 400 for direct passage.** Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş in June and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek more recently have reiterated the need to replace the 1982 charter, while an AKP commission continues internal drafting work. However, recent legislative focus has centered on PKK disarmament legislation passed in August with cross-party support, rather than constitutional reform. Opposition parties remain divided or constrained, and no parliamentary vote, public consultation, or referendum timeline has advanced in the final months of the year. These structural and timing constraints underpin the current trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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