The tight distribution of probabilities across Labour vote share bands from 30-50% reflects the competitive dynamics in this October 8 by-election, where recent Camden local election results showed Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8% across relevant wards. Starmer's resignation as MP has opened the seat to a direct challenge from Green Party leader Zack Polanski, building on prior independent support and local dissatisfaction, while Labour's candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali brings strong council leadership credentials. With no published constituency polling yet and turnout patterns in by-elections often favoring motivated opposition voters, traders see limited separation until the campaign clarifies national Labour trends under new leadership and any tactical shifts among other parties.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于35-40% 25%
50%及以上 20%
45-50% 18%
40-45% 17%
最新
最新
2026-10-08
少于30%
12%
30-35%
13%
35-40%
25%
40-45%
17%
45-50%
18%
50%及以上
20%
35-40% 25%
50%及以上 20%
45-50% 18%
40-45% 17%
最新
最新
2026-10-08
少于30%
$77 交易量
12%
30-35%
$76 交易量
13%
35-40%
$87 交易量
25%
40-45%
$79 交易量
17%
45-50%
$116 交易量
18%
50%及以上
$158 交易量
20%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The tight distribution of probabilities across Labour vote share bands from 30-50% reflects the competitive dynamics in this October 8 by-election, where recent Camden local election results showed Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8% across relevant wards. Starmer's resignation as MP has opened the seat to a direct challenge from Green Party leader Zack Polanski, building on prior independent support and local dissatisfaction, while Labour's candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali brings strong council leadership credentials. With no published constituency polling yet and turnout patterns in by-elections often favoring motivated opposition voters, traders see limited separation until the campaign clarifies national Labour trends under new leadership and any tactical shifts among other parties.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
交易量
$593结束日期
2026-10-08市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETA by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The tight distribution of probabilities across Labour vote share bands from 30-50% reflects the competitive dynamics in this October 8 by-election, where recent Camden local election results showed Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8% across relevant wards. Starmer's resignation as MP has opened the seat to a direct challenge from Green Party leader Zack Polanski, building on prior independent support and local dissatisfaction, while Labour's candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali brings strong council leadership credentials. With no published constituency polling yet and turnout patterns in by-elections often favoring motivated opposition voters, traders see limited separation until the campaign clarifies national Labour trends under new leadership and any tactical shifts among other parties.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
交易量
$593结束日期
2026-10-08市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETThe tight distribution of probabilities across Labour vote share bands from 30-50% reflects the competitive dynamics in this October 8 by-election, where recent Camden local election results showed Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8% across relevant wards. Starmer's resignation as MP has opened the seat to a direct challenge from Green Party leader Zack Polanski, building on prior independent support and local dissatisfaction, while Labour's candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali brings strong council leadership credentials. With no published constituency polling yet and turnout patterns in by-elections often favoring motivated opposition voters, traders see limited separation until the campaign clarifies national Labour trends under new leadership and any tactical shifts among other parties.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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