Massachusetts' 9th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in Bill Keating's 2024 reelection margin and consistent "Safe Democratic" or "Solid Democratic" ratings from forecasters ahead of the November 2026 general election. The incumbent faces a Democratic primary challenge on September 1 from Craig Swallow, while the Republican nominee is expected to be Tyler MacAllister; however, the district's composition across Cape Cod, the South Shore, and suburban areas has produced double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, with no Republican House win in the state since 1994. Limited fundraising and visibility for GOP candidates, combined with the absence of major polling shifts or national tailwinds altering the baseline, underpin trader consensus around a commanding Democratic outcome. A primary upset producing a significantly weakened nominee, a late-breaking scandal, or an unprecedented statewide Republican surge would be required to meaningfully alter the positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,170 交易量
$23,170 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$23,170 交易量
$23,170 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$8,268 交易量
95%
共和党
$14,902 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Massachusetts' 9th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in Bill Keating's 2024 reelection margin and consistent "Safe Democratic" or "Solid Democratic" ratings from forecasters ahead of the November 2026 general election. The incumbent faces a Democratic primary challenge on September 1 from Craig Swallow, while the Republican nominee is expected to be Tyler MacAllister; however, the district's composition across Cape Cod, the South Shore, and suburban areas has produced double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, with no Republican House win in the state since 1994. Limited fundraising and visibility for GOP candidates, combined with the absence of major polling shifts or national tailwinds altering the baseline, underpin trader consensus around a commanding Democratic outcome. A primary upset producing a significantly weakened nominee, a late-breaking scandal, or an unprecedented statewide Republican surge would be required to meaningfully alter the positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$23,170结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Massachusetts' 9th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in Bill Keating's 2024 reelection margin and consistent "Safe Democratic" or "Solid Democratic" ratings from forecasters ahead of the November 2026 general election. The incumbent faces a Democratic primary challenge on September 1 from Craig Swallow, while the Republican nominee is expected to be Tyler MacAllister; however, the district's composition across Cape Cod, the South Shore, and suburban areas has produced double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, with no Republican House win in the state since 1994. Limited fundraising and visibility for GOP candidates, combined with the absence of major polling shifts or national tailwinds altering the baseline, underpin trader consensus around a commanding Democratic outcome. A primary upset producing a significantly weakened nominee, a late-breaking scandal, or an unprecedented statewide Republican surge would be required to meaningfully alter the positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,170结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETMassachusetts' 9th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in Bill Keating's 2024 reelection margin and consistent "Safe Democratic" or "Solid Democratic" ratings from forecasters ahead of the November 2026 general election. The incumbent faces a Democratic primary challenge on September 1 from Craig Swallow, while the Republican nominee is expected to be Tyler MacAllister; however, the district's composition across Cape Cod, the South Shore, and suburban areas has produced double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, with no Republican House win in the state since 1994. Limited fundraising and visibility for GOP candidates, combined with the absence of major polling shifts or national tailwinds altering the baseline, underpin trader consensus around a commanding Democratic outcome. A primary upset producing a significantly weakened nominee, a late-breaking scandal, or an unprecedented statewide Republican surge would be required to meaningfully alter the positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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