Recent Korea Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a most likely overnight low near 24°C for Incheon on August 17 amid persistent high humidity, extensive cloud cover, and scattered afternoon showers that suppress radiative cooling. These conditions align with mid-August climatology, where typical minimums range 23–25°C under lingering summer monsoon influences and urban heat retention. Small differences among the tightly grouped 23–25°C outcomes hinge on variables such as exact cloud timing, wind speeds that could enhance mixing, or brief clear breaks allowing greater heat loss—factors that current short-range forecasts still show modest spread. Trader consensus aggregates this forecast uncertainty into near-even implied probabilities for those three thresholds.