Ongoing US-Iran conflict and the resulting blockade have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily counts averaging around five vessels in recent weeks versus pre-war norms exceeding 100. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, combined with mine threats, IRGC enforcement actions, and dark transits (AIS off), have curtailed activity, producing recent weekly totals in the low dozens as reported by Kpler and Windward data. Trader consensus at 62% for 20-39 transits in the week of August 31 reflects these structural barriers, while modest upside potential from ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks remains constrained by fresh US sanctions and persistent routing uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于20-39 62%
40-59 18%
<20 14%
60-79 7%
最新
$13,861 交易量
最新
$13,861 交易量
2026-09-06
<20
14%
20-39
62%
40-59
18%
60-79
7%
80+
1%
20-39 62%
40-59 18%
<20 14%
60-79 7%
最新
$13,861 交易量
最新
$13,861 交易量
2026-09-06
<20
$682 交易量
14%
20-39
$11,684 交易量
62%
40-59
$1,025 交易量
18%
60-79
$230 交易量
7%
80+
$240 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran conflict and the resulting blockade have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily counts averaging around five vessels in recent weeks versus pre-war norms exceeding 100. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, combined with mine threats, IRGC enforcement actions, and dark transits (AIS off), have curtailed activity, producing recent weekly totals in the low dozens as reported by Kpler and Windward data. Trader consensus at 62% for 20-39 transits in the week of August 31 reflects these structural barriers, while modest upside potential from ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks remains constrained by fresh US sanctions and persistent routing uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
交易量
$13,861结束日期
2026-09-06市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran conflict and the resulting blockade have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily counts averaging around five vessels in recent weeks versus pre-war norms exceeding 100. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, combined with mine threats, IRGC enforcement actions, and dark transits (AIS off), have curtailed activity, producing recent weekly totals in the low dozens as reported by Kpler and Windward data. Trader consensus at 62% for 20-39 transits in the week of August 31 reflects these structural barriers, while modest upside potential from ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks remains constrained by fresh US sanctions and persistent routing uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$13,861结束日期
2026-09-06市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETOngoing US-Iran conflict and the resulting blockade have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily counts averaging around five vessels in recent weeks versus pre-war norms exceeding 100. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, combined with mine threats, IRGC enforcement actions, and dark transits (AIS off), have curtailed activity, producing recent weekly totals in the low dozens as reported by Kpler and Windward data. Trader consensus at 62% for 20-39 transits in the week of August 31 reflects these structural barriers, while modest upside potential from ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks remains constrained by fresh US sanctions and persistent routing uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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