**Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, rising war-risk premiums, and selective carrier rerouting through the Suez route are the dominant factors anchoring trader consensus around 170–209 weekly transits for the week of August 31.** MarineTraffic data show Bab el-Mandeb crossings holding near 269 in the latest reported week (up modestly week-over-week but with a higher share of ballast and sanctioned traffic), while other trackers record AIS-visible volumes flattening around 223 for mid-August periods. These levels sit well below pre-crisis norms yet above the sharp post-July 20 blockade trough, reflecting partial recovery tempered by persistent risk. The August 24 strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan (roughly 63 nautical miles west of Yanbu) and the August 11 attack on the cargo ship Tihamah (six fatalities) have driven renewed caution, pushing war-risk cover for Red Sea voyages sharply higher and making Saudi-linked tonnage harder to insure on standard terms. Major carriers including MSC, Maersk, and others have committed additional Asia-Europe services back through Suez—now accounting for over 30% of some lines’ volumes—yet treat these routings as conditional, with many vessels still going dark or diverting. Tanker flows, especially Saudi crude loadings, remain the most constrained segment, while container and bulker activity has shown more resilience. Market-implied odds therefore cluster on modest week-to-week stability near recent observed ranges rather than a sharp rebound or further collapse. The narrow spread between the two leading bins (190–209 at 43% and 170–189 at 33%) captures uncertainty around last-minute schedule adjustments and dark-transit reporting ahead of resolution. Key near-term catalysts include any further Houthi enforcement actions or carrier announcements on Suez exposure, which could quickly shift the weekly tally within or outside the favored bands.